Commanders vs. Chiefs Week 8 MNF DFS Debate: Isiah Pacheco vs. Jacory Croskey-Merritt

The Commanders-Chiefs Monday Night Football showdown brings a DFS dilemma between Isaiah Pacheco’s touchdown upside and Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s volume-driven value play.

Washington Commanders running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt (22) is interviewed after the game against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium. | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The running back outcomes for the Commanders and Chiefs have been sketchy all year. The fantasy market desperately wants Jacory Croskey-Merritt to be a fantasy success while Kansas City continues to rotate in three backs, creating mostly losing fantasy days for all options.

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Week 8 MNF Running Back Fantasy Football Projections

Shawn Child

Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Washington Commanders (DK: $7,200)

Over the past three weeks, the Commanders have had Croskey-Merritt on the field for 54.5% of their snaps, leading to 16 touches a game. His only winning day came in Week 5 (150 combined yards with two touchdowns and two catches). He scored 14.20 fantasy points in Week 1, while posting weakness in four other matchups (4/17, 57 combined yards and two catches, 68 combined yards with one catch, and 32 combined yards and one catch).

Shawn Child

Kansas City will give up some big plays (4.6 yards per rush) and touchdowns (6) to running backs. They rank 13th in fantasy points allowed (142.90) to backs. 

• Saquon Barkley (22/88/1 with one catch for two yards)
• Cam Skattebo (121 combined yards with one touchdown and six catches)
• Justin Hill (3/76/1 with five catches for 41 yards and one score)
• Jahmyr Gibbs (17/65 with one catch for no yards)
• Ashton Jeanty (6/21 with one catch for 13 yards)

Over the past four games, the Chiefs have played better against running backs. Croskey-Merritt will get double-digit touches, but he has a limited ceiling in catches, and the Commanders could use another back at the goal-line. He was nowhere to be found on his last showdown slate game (17/61 with one catch for seven yards) vs. the Bears. Croskey-Merritt rates the best at running back tonight, while needing about 15.00 fantasy points to be in the mix.

• Jeremy McNichols (15/139/1 with seven catches for 65 yards) has been on the field for 26.7% of the Commanders’ snaps while trending higher over his last two games (32% and 36%). His only game of value came in Week 3 (4/78/1), when he hit on a 60-yard touchdown run.
• Chris Rodriguez battled a calf issue over the previous two weeks, leading to him only being on the field for 10 plays in Week 6 and Week 7. He scored last week (3/12/1)

Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs (DK: $7,000)

Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (10) runs the ball during the first half against the Detroit Lions at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Over the past two weeks, Pacheco has been trending higher in rushing chances (12/51 and 15/57/1). He’s yet to gain over 60 yards in a game while picking up no carries inside the five-yard line. The Chiefs gave him three carries over the past two games inside the 10-yard line (first chances of the year). Pacheco has also lost targets to Bashard Smith. Kansas City gave him three targets in his last three starts (2/13/1, 3/20, and 1/0).

Shawn Childs

Washington ranks 28th in rushing yards (753) to running backs while grading poorly in pass coverage against backs (11.2 yards per catch). They sit 20th in running back defense (160.40 fantasy points).

• Josh Jacobs (23/84/1)
• Ashton Jeanty (17/63)
• Bijan Robinson (181 combined yards with one touchdown and four catches)
• D’Andre Swift (175 combined yards with one touchdown and two catches)
• Javonte Williams (19/116/1 with one catch for two yards)

Pacheco is priced as though he is a lead back with a reasonable workload. Over the past three weeks, he has been on the field for 63%, 77%, and 56% of the Chiefs' snaps. Kareem Hunt was more in his way over the first four games (about 42% of snaps) while Brashard Smith comes off a career-high 28 snaps (35%), with 19 touches (14/39 with five catches for 42 yards).

• Hunt has a team-high five carries inside the five-yard line (three touchdowns)
• Smith leads the Chiefs in catches (14), receiving yards (122), and targets (18).

Kansas City should play from the lead with success passing the ball. I expect at least one rushing touchdown, with Hunt being the running back favorite. Smith makes more sense in a chaser game, but I sense that Kansas City wants him to be their top running back choice late in the season.