DraftKings Showdown DFS Strategy: Best Week 1 Lineup Picks for Cowboys vs. Eagles

Each week on single-game slates, typically on Thursday, Sunday, and Monday nights, DraftKings offers showdown-style DFS games, which require fantasy managers to develop a six-roster slot lineup with a salary cap of $50,000. This week’s matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles has a $1 million payout for a $15 entry fee. To sell out the contest, DraftKings needs 176,470 teams.

The hook to this format is the caption position. This line slot costs 1.5 times a player’s salary and rewards that investment with a 1.5 multiplier in fantasy points.

First Look at the Tote Board

The first step in analyzing the weekly play pool is understanding the star power in the game. DraftKings to box out lineup developers from using more than three elite options. Their goal is to force decision-making at the back end of the player pool, while closing off more angles for the max entries players (150 teams).

If game projections showcase many players with a chance to score over 20.00 fantasy points, there is a good chance that four to five of these options are in play. Unfortunately, it is impossible to roster the top grouping of players due to salary cap constraints.

There will be times when two lower-scoring teams match up in the game, with minimal star power at running back, wide receiver, and tight end, but their salaries will seem higher based on their potential. In these cases, kickers and defenses have a great chance to hit the winning ticket.

Winning Score

A higher scoring game can lead to a 3X outcome in winning fantasy points or over 150 fantasy points with $50,000 of salary invested. For the most part, the goal is to find players who can score more than twice their salary in fantasy points per $1,000 invested. If a kicker has a $5,000 salary, he must score 10.00 fantasy points to reach that scoring threshold. A stud quarterback used as a caption must score higher than 35.00 fantasy points if his salary falls into the $17,500 range.

Finding Value

DraftKings does a good job boxing out backup quarterbacks from being a value in their showdowns. In Week 1, the lowest salary for any available quarterback is $9,000. There are times when this type of player could still pay off, and they would be a much lower percentage owned.

Backup running backs can pay off if game score gets out of line in the fourth quarter or the lead runner gets hurt.

There are times when tight ends lead their team in touchdowns on showdown slates. They create salary cap relief, especially when they pay off as a caption.

Any wide receiver scoring a touchdown has a chance to land on the winning ticket.

Pick a Game Style and Stick with it Each Week

In the horse racing world, I think of three different styles of plays – early speed, closers, and class. Each day, there will be chances for wins in each bucket. If I jump between styles and try to out handicap the field, my win rate could be much less.

On a showdown slate, what is your goal? Action in the game? Play your favorite players? Or a lifetime score? The latter requires contrarian plays and lower ownership, which in turn eats away at your bankroll until the dream line comes in.

Double Kickers and One Defense

The lineup style does come in, and it rewards the winning team with a handsome payoff.

Tight End Caption

By locking in a tight end captain in your lineup at DraftKings, one of your roster slots must be his quarterback. He can’t post a winning day without scoring touchdowns, and his salary creates lower roster flexibility.

No Quarterback Teams

It’s not that difficult for a receiver to outscore a quarterback for the week if he gains over 100 yards with a touchdown, and his team finishes other drives with rushing scores or field goals. For this style to work, both offenses most likely need talent at the running back position.

Double Running Backs/Defense from the Same Team Stack

This outcome happens in a one-sided game with many turnovers.

Here’s a look at this week’s top skill players:

Quarterbacks

Both starting quarterbacks in this matchup have 2X projections in the flex slots in showdown lineups. Jalen Hurts tends to excel in this game style, as he scores rushing touchdowns while possessing the receiving talent to achieve winning success passing the ball when the game flow dictates.

I consider Dak Prescott a better play at home, but he will be on fewer teams, and the Cowboys have plenty of receiving talent.

Running Backs

Week 1 TNF Running Back Projections — Shawn Childs

Based on his lower salary ($5,400) and 2X projections, Javonte Williams appears to be a top value play on this slate. I don’t trust Dallas to score on the ground in close, and Miles Sanders and/or Jaydon Blue could steal some touches.

Saquon Barkley brings beast upside, with a high floor. He will be rostered on a high percentage of teams. For him to earn the top billing for the week, he must score at least twice while hitting one long run.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown is the top wide receiver on the board in this matchup based on my projections. He has scored a touchdown in three consecutive games at home against the Cowboys, but has failed to deliver any impact outings. I expect the Eagles to pass more in this contest, and Brown does have a salary advantage over CeeDee Lamb.

Based on target opportunity, Lamb has the highest ceiling of any receiver in this matchup. His floor makes him an excellent floor option to play in this matchup.

Both of the WR2s (George Pickens and DeVonta Smith) bring explosiveness and scoring upside. I expect Smith to be more active while shining in his last matchup (6/120/2) against the Cowboys.

Tight Ends

Week 1 TNF Tight End Projections — Shawn Childs

Jake Ferguson failed to score last season after reaching pay dirt five times in 2023. I’m sure the Eagles’ game plan is to slow down CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, creating a winning window for the Cowboys’ tight end. In the first week of the season, communication in coverage can be off for some defenses at the goal line, leading to a bump in tight end scoring. Ferguson looked priced to pay off on this showdown slate.

The Eagles will feature Goedert at times, but he tends to see five targets or fewer in most matchups. With Mikah Parsons out of the pass rush equation, Philadelphia may need him as much in the blocking game.

Kicker

Brandon Aubrey is a scoring weapon, and with the leg to kick touchdowns in fantasy points. His salary requires him to score over 10.00 fantasy points to be a winning fantasy investment in this matchup, which seems highly likely. He appears to be the best value at caption this week.