NBA Finals Game 4 Underdog Fantasy Prop Predictions Today: SGA, Haliburton Duel

Get the best Underdog Fantasy prop picks for Game 4 of the 2025 NBA Finals, including expert predictions on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton, Cason Wallace, and Obi Toppin.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) celebrates making a basket against the Indiana Pacers during the first quarter during game one of the 2025 NBA Finals at Paycom Center. | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

The 2025 NBA Finals are heating up—and so is the prop market. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander looking to bounce back in a must-win Game 4, Tyrese Haliburton searching for the right balance between scoring and playmaking, and key role players like Cason Wallace and Obi Toppin stepping into the spotlight, there’s no shortage of betting value on the board. Whether you're targeting scoring props, assist totals, or breakout performances off the bench, these Game 4 picks offer prime opportunities to cash in on Underdog Fantasy.

Shai Giligeous-Alexander Over 33.5 Points

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander fell short of history in Game 3, missing the chance to become the first player ever to open an NBA Finals with three straight 30-point performances. After torching Indiana for a combined 72 points in the first two games—surpassing even Allen Iverson’s iconic pace—SGA cooled off with a 24-point outing, shooting 45% for the first time in the series. More concerning than the dip in efficiency, though, were his six turnovers, a rare blemish for the typically poised MVP.

But if there's one thing we’ve learned about Shai this postseason, it’s that he thrives in bounce-back spots. Following each of OKC’s last four playoff losses, Gilgeous-Alexander has responded with at least 34 points—including a 40-piece—showing exactly why he’s the engine behind this Thunder title run. He’s also averaged 39 points per game against the Pacers in their two regular-season meetings.

With the Finals shifting into must-win territory and Indiana’s uptempo style creating plenty of possessions, expect OKC to unleash SGA early and often. His elite ability to attack from all three levels, draw contact, and control the pace should help him soar past this number. He’s topped this line in four of his last five games, including two of three matchups in this very series. Roll with the Over.

3K for SGA 🔥

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the 12th player in history to reach 3,000 points in an NBA season, regular-season and playoffs. pic.twitter.com/O96N2CMzRc

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) June 9, 2025

Tyrese Haliburton Under 8.5 Assists

Tyrese Haliburton has to flip the switch. When he's aggressive and hunting his own shot, the Pacers are simply a different team—and they’ll need that version of Haliburton if they want to hold serve at home and take a commanding 3-1 series lead.

Yes, he's a pass-first maestro at heart, always looking to set up his shooters. But with OKC's perimeter defense clamping down and shot-blockers like Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein lurking inside, clean passing lanes are getting harder to come by. Through three Finals games, Haliburton is averaging just 7.7 assists, and while he did dish out 11 in Game 3, he totaled just six in each of the first two matchups.

Given how disruptive the Thunder's halfcourt defense can be, it’s tough to bank on Indiana continuing to shoot lights out. That puts the spotlight on Haliburton’s scoring chops, which feel like the safer bet in Game 4. Expect Indy’s bench to play a huge role—especially Bennedict Mathurin, T.J. McConnell, and Obi Toppin—but if the Pacers are going to keep OKC on the ropes, it starts with their All-Star guard dialing up the aggression and putting pressure on the defense from the opening tip.

Cason Wallace Over 5.5 Points

Cason Wallace has stepped into the starting lineup, and the stars are aligning for him to clear this modest point total. He’s hit this mark at 66.6% rate through three postseason games and is coming off his most efficient outing yet—dropping seven points on 60% shooting in just 24 minutes.

The matchup? Even juicier. Indiana gave up the most points per game to opposing starting shooting guards during the regular season (19.0) and plays at the sixth-fastest pace in the league. That means more possessions—and more shots. The Thunder aren’t far behind, ranking ninth in tempo, and their knack for forcing turnovers and crashing the offensive glass only boosts Wallace’s opportunity for volume.

With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren commanding defensive attention, Wallace should find himself with a few clean looks—especially from deep. Add in his invaluable perimeter defense keeping him glued to the floor, and you’ve got the recipe for another efficient scoring night. Take the Over.

Obi Toppin Over 9.5 Points

After rattling off three straight double-digit scoring outings in the postseason—capped by a strong showing in Game 1 of the NBA Finals in which he tallied 17 points and his five triples—Obi Toppin has cooled off a bit, managing just three and eight points in Games 2 and 3, respectively. But the encouraging signs are still there: he’s hoisted eight shots in each Finals game so far and has let it fly from deep, attempting 16 threes throughout the series. Add in the fact that he’s logged 25+ minutes in two of the three matchups, and it’s clear Toppin remains a key part of Indiana’s second unit.

Obi Toppin is one of the most efficient role players in the league pic.twitter.com/PIRL21TV7h

— BBall Index (@The_BBall_Index) June 11, 2025

And let’s not forget—Toppin thrives at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Just ask the Knicks, who watched him explode for 18 points in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals. He’s hit 58.9% of his shots over his last five home games—over 6% better than his season-long average—and his high-flying style brings an extra spark in front of the home crowd. Whether it’s finishing in transition, crashing the glass for a putback jam, or getting to the line (where he’s been perfect over his last five outings), Toppin knows how to energize a building.

With Game 4 on deck and the Pacers looking to take control of the series, expect this underrated spark plug to bounce back with another efficient, double-digit scoring night.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 

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