NBA Finals Game 5 Underdog Fantasy Prop Predictions Today: Haliburton, Holmgrem Erupt

Tyrese Haliburton, Lu Dort, and Chet Holmgren headline our top NBA Finals Underdog Fantasy picks for Game 5, with smart prop plays fueled by rising volume, home-court trends, and breakout performances.

Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton (0) reacts after a play against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second half during game four of the 2025 NBA Finals at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. | Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

The NBA Finals are heating up with the series locked at 2-2, and Game 5 in Oklahoma City presents a golden opportunity for savvy bettors to capitalize on player prop value. Whether it’s Tyrese Haliburton stepping into a more aggressive role, Lu Dort lighting it up from beyond the arc at home, or Chet Holmgren continuing his breakout stretch in the paint, the trends are aligning for a trio of overs that could tilt the scales in your favor. Let’s dive into the matchups, usage spikes, and shooting splits that make these bets stand out ahead of Monday night’s pivotal showdown.

Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 Points

After a muted start to the series in Oklahoma City, Tyrese Haliburton has flipped the narrative—injecting much-needed assertiveness into his offensive game in Games 3 and 4, precisely the kind of shift Indiana needs if it hopes to steal the series.

Despite some passivity in the opening matchups, Haliburton has remained unwavering from deep, launching no fewer than seven 3-point attempts in each of the first four games. That level of consistency from beyond the arc bodes well for Game 5—especially with Isaiah Hartenstein re-entering the Thunder’s starting lineup and packing the paint. Expect the Pacers to lean on spacing, with Haliburton orchestrating the offense and letting it fly from distance.

The Pacers' maestro ramped up the intensity in Game 3 with 22 points on 17 attempts, followed by an efficient 18-point showing on 15 shots in Game 4. He’s attacking downhill more frequently, putting pressure on OKC’s interior defense and creating lanes that were absent earlier in the series. Through four games, Haliburton is averaging 17.8 points per contest, and that figure feels poised to rise in this pivotal Game 5. One major swing factor? Free throws. He's only attempted three across four games—a number that should tick up if he continues initiating contact and playing with this elevated edge.

This finish from Tyrese Haliburton was so smooth. 🥶

pic.twitter.com/X5wpkUIIK4

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) June 14, 2025

Even with Defensive First Teamer Lu Dort hounding him in Game 4, Haliburton didn’t flinch. He’s now logged at least 13 field goal attempts in every game of the series and remains the heartbeat of Indiana’s offensive engine.

Given his escalating volume and the do-or-die stakes for the Pacers, the 17.5-point line feels conservative for a player of Haliburton’s pedigree. If the moment calls for a star to rise, Haliburton’s arrow is pointing up.

Lu Dort Over 8.5 Points

Lu Dort has made a habit of tormenting the Pacers—not just with his signature defense, but with sneaky-good scoring performances. In seven regular-season meetings against Indiana since 2022, he’s averaged a robust 19.4 points per game while knocking down nearly three triples a night and shooting an impressive 54.4% from the field. While the scoring has been harder to come by in the NBA Finals, Dort has still cleared this point prop in two of four games, including a red-hot Game 1 in OKC where he poured in 15 points and splashed five threes.

As the series heads back to the Paycom Center, Dort is primed for another uptick in usage. He averaged 11.3 points across 37 home games this season—better than his 10.1 regular-season average—and his confidence behind the arc is clearly surging. Through four Finals games, he’s launched 18 threes and cashed in at an eye-popping 61.1% rate.

Perhaps the biggest key? Minutes. Thanks to his elite on-ball defense, Dort has logged 33+ minutes in three of the four contests so far. With defenders glued to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, Dort should continue to see clean looks from deep—and if he connects on just a couple early, he’s got a strong chance to fly past this line once again.

Chet Holmgren Over 24.5 Points + Rebounds

After a lukewarm start to the series, Chet Holmgren has come alive in a big way—rattling off back-to-back double-doubles in Indiana while averaging a rock-solid 29.5 combined points and rebounds over 36 minutes per contest. Now, with the series knotted at two apiece and shifting back to the raucous Paycom Center, the lanky phenom is poised to keep his foot on the gas in a pivotal Game 5.

Chet Holmgren vs. Indiana - Finals G4 on/off splits #ThunderUp   

+17.1 NET on
-7.5 NET off pic.twitter.com/SddKqyTl7z

— Deee Black (@Deee_Black_) June 14, 2025

Holmgren’s recent surge in aggression has been a game-changer. After earning just four total free-throw attempts in Games 1 and 2, he’s attacked the rim with authority, drawing 15 trips to the line across Games 3 and 4—converting 14 of them. With his elite free-throw percentage and expanding offensive role, Chet doesn’t need a high volume of shots to clear this combo line, though it helps that he’s attempted no fewer than nine field goals in any game this series. In Game 3, he even hoisted up 15 shots despite a frustrating 0-for-6 performance from deep.

That ice-cold shooting from long range (1-for-11 in the series) screams for positive regression—especially considering he hit 37.9% of his threes during the regular season while averaging 1.4 makes per game. Don’t be surprised if he finds his stroke back in front of the home crowd.

Even with Isaiah Hartenstein back in the starting five, OKC continues to lean into small-ball sets, leaving Holmgren as the primary paint presence for extended stretches. He pulled down a whopping 15 boards in Game 4 and, now that he's finally logging starter-level minutes (24 in Game 1 → 37 in Game 4), the runway is wide open for him to clear this number again.

Holmgren’s rising confidence, increased usage, and statistical upside make the over on this combo prop a juicy play in Game 5.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 

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