Underdog Fantasy NBA Finals Game 6 Prop Predictions Today: SGA, Jalen Williams, More

Discover three top NBA Finals Game 6 player props as the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers battle with the Larry O'Brien Trophy on the line.

Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jalen Williams (8) celebrates after a play during the third quarter against the Indiana Pacers in game three of the 2025 NBA Finals at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. | Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

With the NBA Finals heating up, sharp bettors are eyeing key player prop angles heading into a pivotal Game 6 between the Thunder and Pacers. From Jalen Williams' looming regression to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's defensive dominance and Andrew Nembhard’s sneaky upside in the wake of Tyrese Haliburton’s injury, these three wagers offer compelling value on Underdog Fantasy as the series swings back to Indiana.

Jalen Williams Under 23.5 Points

Jalen Williams has turned heads and lit up scoreboards, especially after erupting for a 40-piece in Game 5 to put the Thunder up 3-2. He’s been electric over the last three contests, cashing in on this points line each time. But let’s pump the brakes a bit—prior to this hot streak, Williams went Under this total in five of his previous seven games across the Western Conference Finals and NBA Finals.

Jalen Williams last three games:

31.0 PPG
6.3 RPG
51/40%

FMVP candidate? pic.twitter.com/IissHgxTL5

— StatMuse (@statmuse) June 17, 2025

Now, with the series shifting back to Indiana, don’t be surprised if the Thunder come out flat—especially if Tyrese Haliburton starts looking like his old self. If the Pacers jump out early, OKC may already start eyeing Game 7, potentially managing minutes to keep their stars fresh.

Keep in mind: J-Dub averaged just 21.6 points per game during the regular season and only 19.0 across two meetings with the Pacers. With Indy expected to crank up the defensive intensity on the Thunder’s No. 2 scorer, some regression feels inevitable. The smart play? Lean Under.

Shai Giligeous-Alexander Over 1.5 Steals

The MVP isn’t just dazzling on offense—he’s become a defensive menace on the biggest stage. Through the first five games of the Finals, he’s racked up multiple steals in four contests and is fresh off a highlight-filled outing that featured four emphatic blocks. With nine swats in his last four appearances, SGA has been a disruptive force that Indiana simply hasn’t been able to solve—and with the Larry O’Brien Trophy in sight, expect that defensive fire to keep burning.

Most STEALS + BLOCKS by a guard in Finals history (if series ended today):

SGA - 4.2 in 2025
MJ - 4.2 in 1991

TWO-WAY SHAI. pic.twitter.com/jvU6VsIQ58

— NBA (@NBA) June 18, 2025

Meanwhile, Tyrese Haliburton’s turnover troubles have been a gift for OKC’s aggressive backcourt. The Pacers’ floor general has coughed up the ball at least three times in every game this series—doubling his regular-season average—and SGA has made him pay. Gilgeous-Alexander has posted multiple steals in 70% of his last 20 playoff games and enters Game 6 averaging 1.8 steals per game in the postseason. With the Thunder locking in on defense, don’t be surprised if SGA adds another defensive gem to his growing highlight reel.

Andrew Nembhard Over 10.5 Points

If Haliburton’s minutes are limited—or if he’s sidelined altogether—the natural beneficiary isn’t the popular pick, T.J. McConnell. While McConnell’s been solid this postseason, his production and efficiency actually dipped during Haliburton’s regular-season absences, and his defensive limitations against OKC’s dynamic guards have been exposed (-10 in 90 minutes this series).

Enter Andrew Nembhard. His usage rate spiked to 22.7% without Haliburton (up from 15.7%) and he averaged 12.4 points in those games, clearing this prop in four of seven meaningful contests. He’s also Indiana’s most capable perimeter defender, which secures his floor time regardless of what happens on offense. In short: if Haliburton is limited, Nembhard steps up—not just by default, but by design. And even if Haliburton is fine, Nembhard is a starter who logs heavy minutes and still has a shot at clearing this line.

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