NBA PrizePicks Predictions: Minnesota Timberwolves At Oklahoma City Thunder (Game 5)

Discover the top PrizePicks NBA props to target for Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals between the Thunder and Timberwolves.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) in the third quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves during game two of the western conference finals for the 2025 NBA Playoffs at Paycom Center. | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

With Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals set to tip off in Oklahoma City tonight, it’s a perfect time to dive into the player props market. The stakes couldn’t be higher, and with stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards ready to put on a show, there’s no shortage of value to be found on PrizePicks. From sneaky role-player angles to marquee names in must-win spots, here are the top props to target for Thursday night’s pivotal showdown between the Thunder and Timberwolves.

Naz Reid Over 15.5 Points + Rebounds

Reid’s points + rebounds prop has quietly been one of the most reliable plays in the Western Conference—and we’re heading right back to the well for this pivotal Game 5. Reid has cleared this number in three of four playoff matchups against Oklahoma City and enters Thursday night riding a three-game streak of smashing this line.

Minnesota ranks sixth in scoring over the past five games, and with the Thunder playing at the league’s fifth-fastest pace at home, we’re looking at a boost in possessions for the Wolves—an ideal setup for Reid to keep producing. With Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle battling inconsistency, Reid has stepped up as a steady presence off the bench, earning trust with his size, mobility, and floor-spacing ability. After a rough Game 1 where he shot just 1-for-11, the reigning Sixth Man of the Year has bounced back in style, posting double-digit points in three straight outings. If he connects on a couple of threes—and history says he will—this prop should be well within reach.

Shai Giligeous-Alexander Over 1.5 Three Pointers

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander enters Game 5 with a hot hand and a green light from beyond the arc. He’s cleared this three-point line in back-to-back games and torched the Timberwolves from deep during the regular season, hitting 55.6% of his triples across four meetings and cashing this number in three of those contests. The postseason may raise the stakes, but it hasn’t rattled SGA—he poured in 40 points and drilled a pair of threes in Oklahoma City’s pivotal Game 4 win, exuding the kind of swagger you expect from an MVP.

SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER TODAY

40 POINTS
10 ASSISTS
9 REBOUNDS pic.twitter.com/tRhvUjFwXU

— TF (@ThunderFocus) May 27, 2025

On his home floor, Gilgeous-Alexander has quietly emerged as one of the league’s more efficient long-range threats, ranking in the 83rd percentile with a stellar 40.2% three-point clip. His volume has also taken a leap forward this year, climbing from 3.6 to 5.7 attempts per game—a sign of growing confidence and a more aggressive perimeter mindset. While he struggled from deep in the first two games of this series at home (1-for-6 combined), the moment feels ripe for a bounce-back. With Anthony Edwards on the other side turning up the heat, expect SGA to counter by attacking all three levels of the defense—including with his smooth, confident stroke from downtown.

Rudy Gobert Over 8 Rebounds

Rudy Gobert’s rebound totals may have dipped in the Western Conference Finals, but don’t let that lull you into complacency. After averaging a robust 10.9 boards per game during the regular season, the Frenchman's playoff clip has settled at 8.9 across 14 contests. Still, he’s hit his mark in two of his last three games against the Thunder—and with Minnesota facing elimination in Game 5, expect Gobert to bring maximum intensity to the glass.

Despite the recent dip, Gobert remains an elite force in the paint. He ranks in the 99th percentile in offensive rebounds, snagging an impressive 3.6 per game, and is one of the league’s most heavily relied-upon big men, logging 32.3 minutes a night (87th percentile in usage). Combine that with Oklahoma City’s up-tempo style—the Thunder rank fifth in pace when playing at home—and the opportunity for increased rebounding volume is clear. In a win-or-go-home scenario, this line feels egregiously low and ripe for the picking.

Anthony Edwards Under 5.5 Assists

This matchup is tailor-made for Anthony Edwards to put on a scoring clinic. While he’s eclipsed this assist line in three consecutive outings, don’t be misled—Edwards averaged just 4.5 assists during the regular season, and with Minnesota’s season on the line in a win-or-go-home Game 5, expect him to shift out of facilitator mode and attack relentlessly. After attempting just 13 shots in Game 4, the All-NBA guard is poised to come out firing in what could be the Timberwolves’ final stand.

Edwards has a history of elevating his game under playoff pressure, averaging 27.1 points on 20.2 shot attempts per game in the postseason. Contextually, the odds of a playmaking-heavy performance are even slimmer. The Timberwolves have operated at the second-slowest pace in the league over their last 25 games, naturally limiting assist volume. On the road, they also rank among the league's worst in offensive rebounds per game (10.4), further reducing second-chance opportunities. Altogether, the stage is set for Edwards to shoulder the scoring load and leave it all on the floor.

Jalen Williams Over 5 Assists

Jalen Williams has quietly emerged as a premier playmaker, and the numbers make a compelling case. He recorded five or more assists in 62% of his regular-season games, averaging 5.1 dimes per outing—but it’s been in the postseason where his facilitating has truly taken off. Williams has hit the 5+ assist mark in 12 of 15 playoff games (80%), including each of the last five in which he’s played at least 25 minutes. He’s become an indispensable cog in Oklahoma City’s offensive machine.

Williams has cleared this mark in seven of his last eight meetings with the Timberwolves (88%), including every game where he’s logged 25+ minutes and all four matchups played at home. Averaging 5.5 assists in that span, Williams has proven that even elite opposition can’t stifle his distribution game.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 

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