PGA DFS (FanDuel): FedEx St. Jude Championship Course Breakdown & Predictions/Picks

The FedEx Cup Playoffs begin tomorrow at the newly-renovated TPC Southwind in Memphis, TN. This event will takeoff with the Top 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings. The Top 50 will advance to the BMW Championship next week at Caves Valley in Owings Mills, Maryland.

This St. Jude Championship will include your tops names, such as: Scottie Scheffler, Sepp Straka, Russell Henley, Justin Thomas, and many elite others. Notably, Rory McIlroy has decided to skip the event as he is all but locked up for the second round at the BMW Championship next week. McIlroy has caught a bit of flack for playing less and less, but it will still be a great event without the reigning Masters Champion.

Course Breakdown:

TPC Southwind has undergone extensive renovations in the past year. They have taken to players feedback and decided to modernize the course setup. I project this will make this event to be even more entertaining and challenging, similar to a Major setup.

TPC Southwind is a tree lined, parkland style course. The weather this weekend projects to be very hot, thus making it very firm and fast. All green complexes have been renovated to modernize and uphold course quality and combining this with the weather should make for a difficult weekend around the greens.

The grass has also been updated. TPC Southwind now adds zoysiagrass to their fairways, different from their old and very common Bermudagrass. As a whole, the course will still have a variety of grass types between the various course surfaces. In simpler terms, you will need a versatile, smart game to manage your way through TPC Southwind.

The most important metrics at TPC Southwind for the FedEx St. Jude Championship compared to the average Tour course.
⛳️12 doglegs combined with the 6th narrowest fairways and five drives with water danger keep TPC Southwind a challenge OTT
⛳️Penal bermuda rough, along with tiny… pic.twitter.com/4X2WXueohR
— Ron Klos (@PGASplits101) August 5, 2025

This course is going to be demanding in some key areas. It is of the hardest golf courses for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. With much tree lining, moderate fairway bunkers, and dogleg shaping, tee shots will demand accuracy and versatility in your bag of shots (draws, fades, low bullets).

Given this hurdle, players will also find themselves around the green, but not on it. Saving par will be vital and thus making Strokes Gained: Around the Green another key aspect.

No course can ever compare to Augusta National, but this layout will require a lot of similar strengths in a players arsenal to succeed. The Masters is known for demanding shot-shaping, chipping, and clutch putting. The top players always win in Augusta, so I expect the same here in Memphis. A top player will win.

I am most exciting to watch the back nine this weekend. It leaves for much opportunity and penalty. Players will be rewarded for their good shots.

The 14th at TPC Southwind is going to have a wide range of scores at a pivotal time during the round.

cc: @Golfbet x @FedExChamp pic.twitter.com/XJkOoCRiJw
— Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood) August 6, 2025

Event History

TPC Southwind has played host to the FedEx Cup Playoffs its 4th year now. Prior, it has hosted the WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational and the FedEx St. Jude Classic before that. The most experienced players have competed here a multitude of times. Each year of the event as a Playoff venue has seen the score between -15 and -17. Given my course analysis and weather breakdown:

My Winning Score Prediction: -14

Top DFS Picks (Fanduel)

Scottie Scheffler $13,400

I had stated that this layout favors the best in the world. You must shape your shots and play efficient golf. This will benefit a player that has had success at Augusta National. Scheffler does not have a cheap price, but I feel very confident that he may just win this week. It will be hot and Scheffler has also been a top player in sweltering hot conditions. I would genuinely say that he has a 1 in 3 chance to win this event.

Tommy Fleetwood $11,100

Fleetwood has been playing some fantastic golf. He is one of the most well-rounded golfers in the game, and that benefits him at TPC Southwind. 9 of his last 10 events showed Fleetwood at, or better than average in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. He is also an elite iron players with nearly every event this season seeing Fleetwood with positive Strokes Gained: Approach. Between TPC Southwind and Augusta National, Fleetwood has finished in the Top 33 in each of his last 6 appearances, including two Top-3 finishes.

Sepp Straka $9,900

Straka is third in the FedEx Cup Standings. He has thrived in PGA Tour setups, and it shows. Sepp Straka has two wins this year and nine top tens. As TPC Southwind is with zoysia grass fairways, Straka is also among the best players on that grass type. Of the main-five Strokes Gained categories, The Austrian has only struck in the red twice over the last three tournament (or 15 total categories). He very well may play to the status of Thomas, Fleetwood, and a much cheaper price.

Nick Taylor $8,200

Among the hottest players on the PGA tour is Nick Taylor. Prior to the Open Championship, Taylor recorded five consecutive events with Total Strokes Gained 1.49 or higher. Any tournament with 1.0 or better is considered very good. Nick Taylor also ranks 24th in SG: Off the Tee this season and he is a very good shot-shaper and putter. I expect Taylor to put himself in many birdie opportunities this week and put together a very good performance for his price.

Denny McCarthy $8,300

Perhaps the safest pick in the field is Denny McCarthy. He is Mr. Make the Cut. Now, I contradict myself because he actually missed both cuts overseas (Scottish Open, Open Championship), but in the states he has thrived. Denny's last missed cut, prior to the english stretch, was literally at the Open Championship in 2024.

Denny McCarthy is among the elite putters on the PGA Tour. He has played six combined events at TPC Southwind and Augusta National and never missed the cut. When it boils down to it, you should have well over a 90% chance to have McCarthy played the weekend and should his putter get hot, a Top-10 is very well in the bag.