Adam Scott, Stephan Jaegar Top Fantasy Golf Picks at Texas Children's Houston Open

The PGA Tour exits its Florida swing to now head into the big state of Texas. Thursday will kick off the four-day Texas Children's Houston Open, which will take place at Memorial Park Golf Course. The tournament is historically one of the easier, wide-open events. That brings us to break it down in depth, to give you the best possible insights for the fantasy golf weekend.

Key Course Metrics

Memorial Park is generally easy off the tee, where distance matters less than usual, and the rough penalty hardly affects any golfer at all. Where value will lie is with putting on these somewhat fast greens and nailing down mid-approach shots. There is no big shot-shaping required. It is just a matter of throwing darts. The event will be very wide open, therefore, with high variance, suggesting you fade the top golfers in the field for higher value. These are the key metrics to look at this week:

Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Putting
Driving Distance (Natural Advantage)
Recent Results (Are they hot?)

Tournament History and Weather

We can easily find a very low score this weekend. How low the golfers can go will depend on the weather, thus affecting the firmness (and softness) of the greens.

The entire weekend's project had nearly 0% of precipitation. The temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s all week, with little wind affecting either. Leading up to Thursday, there has also been no rain. The course is expected to play quite firm, but not deathly firm, with moderate temperatures. We can expect a winning score to be -17 to -20. Here are the past five winners:

2025: Min Woo Lee (-20)
2024: Stephan Jaegar (-12)
2023: No Tournament
2022: Tony Finau (-16)
2021: Jason Kokrak (-10)
2020: Carlos Ortiz (-13)

Fantasy Golf Picks

Adam Scott — $10,300 (FanDuel) | 9,000 (DraftKings)

Scott matches up with 14-straight events above field average in strokes gained: total. He also consistently ranks among the top-20% of distance hitters on the PGA Tour. Being a renowned putter, we can rely on Scott to fire a low tournament this weekend, as he also has two top-11 finishes in his last three starts, all of which were signature events with tougher fields.

Stephan Jaeger — $9,500 (FanDuel) | $7,800 (DraftKings)

Jaegar is a former champion of this event and, in fact, he has 3 top-11 finishes in four starts, with 0 missed cuts. Jaeger also comes off a T-7 finish at the Valspar Championship. He is then consistently nearly 10 yards of tour average in driving distance, with above-average, consistently good putting and approach metrics. Jaegar shall be primed to do well on familiar grounds at a moderate price.

Patrick Rodgers — $9,100 (FanDuel) | $7,600 (DraftKings)

Rodgers is playing above tour average in strokes gained in each of his last 10 events, including 3 top-11 finishes and 2 top-7 finishes. He is above average in putting, well above average in approach, and with rounds in the red, per Datagolf, Rodgers shall do well at a golf course where he has made the last three cuts (75%).

Jordan Smith — $8,900 (FanDuel) | $7,400 (DraftKingS)

Smith went red-hot this past weekend at the Valspar Championship, making a Sunday run to finish in sole 3rd place. Smith averages 1.5 strokes gained per round in driving distance, above the tour average in his last 10 events off the tee. He is also above average in approach in over 10 of his last 12 events. A common trend on the PGA Tour is that when players play well, they continue to play well the following week. That showed to be the case last week with Matthew Fitzpatrick, last month with Jacob Bridgeman, and now, hopefully, this week with Jordan Smith.