Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa Top Fantasy Golf Picks at Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is the next event on the PGA Tour Florida swing schedule. This classic will take place over the next four days at Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Bay Hill, Florida, just outside of Orlando. The course is a legendary one, featuring the 6th hole where John Daly and Bryson DeChambeau have famously cut across the lake for eagle opportunities. The event has stars showing up, so a big winner is likely. This is our analysis to find that man.

Key Course Metrics

Bay Hill is a balanced course. It will demand moderate precision and length on certain tee boxes. Approach will be as vital as usual. Tee-to-Green ability must be stellar with no big weaknesses. Golfers must then find their birdie on these greens where the chances arise.

The course itself is quite flat, therefore allowing the field to even out a bit. Water is in play, and the rough is up, so golfers must avoid drastic mistakes. Despite a somewhat easy-looking golf course, the scores rarely exceed -15 for the winner. These are key metrics to research when constructing fantasy golf lineups.

Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Driving Accuracy Percentage
Strokes Gained: Putting
Long Iron Accuracy

Tournament History

Bay Hill has often netted volatile winning scores. Recently, Scottie Scheffler took over the event, winning by -15 victory in 2024. Rory McIlroy won the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2018 at 19 under par.

On the contrary, Scheffler also won in 2022 with a much tougher 5 under par score to win. Tyrell Hatton won at -4 in 2020.

By all accounts, the weather will be a bit windy this weekend with rain mixed in here and there. Sunday suggests a 75% chance of rain, but it is still early. The final score is tough to nail down, but we can expect a number between -12 and -16 in most outcome ranges. The winner will surely be a big name, as has generally been the case.

Best FanDuel/DraftKings Picks

Rory McIlroy — $13,200 (FanDuel) | $11,600 (DraftKings)

McIlroy's stats closely match Scottie Scheffler's recent ones. Being priced about 10% cheaper, he must be played. McIlroy is a former champion of the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the reigning Masters Champion. He has zero weaknesses in his game, and this should ultimately be a course he eats up. McIlroy had +3.8 Strokes Gained Total per Round at the Genesis Invitational, and he has not even been close to the field average since last year's PGA Championship.

Collin Morikawa — $11,100 (FanDuel) | $9,600 (DraftKings)

When Morikawa had been playing his best golf, he had also played well at Bay Hill. Some would say he is playing some of his best golf since 2020. In 2020, Morikawa finished T9 in this event, and in 2025, he was 2nd. Morikawa comes off a T-7 at the Genesis and a victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

If Morikawa's iron game is dialed in to his best form, he should dominate from that common 150+ yard range that will be ultra important this weekend. Tee-to-Green, Morikawa is averaging +2.22 Strokes Gained per Round over his last three events (12 rounds).

Shane Lowry — $9,500 (FanDuel) | $8,100 (DraftKings)

Lowry had a world-class choke at this past weekend's Cognizant Classic. However, do not let a couple of holes be the full takeaway. Lowry had 2.95 Strokes Gained per Round Total at the Cognizant Classic. In his last eight events, Lowry is no worse than 0.61 Strokes Gained per Round of Approach. He recently finished 7th and 3rd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which tends to favor Lowry's game on this Florida swing.

Pierceson Coody — $8,700 (FanDuel) | $7,600 (DraftKings)

Coody is arguably the best low-tier golfer at the very moment. He has finished T-18 or better in five of his last six PGA Tour events. Coody does it at near +1.0 Strokes Gained per Round of Approach, as well as the same Tee-to-Green. In one start at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Coody carded a T-14 finish in 2023. His game is much better now than it was in 2023, so we have moderate risk with higher upside yet to be seen at this price point.