Stefon Diggs Fantasy Football Stat Projections vs. Chargers Suggest He's A DFS Fade

Stefon Diggs' Wild Card projections versus the Chargers suggest he’s a DFS fade despite elite efficiency.

New England Patriots wide receiver Stefon Diggs (8) makes a reception as New York Jets safety Malachi Moore (27) tackles during the second quarter of the game at MetLife Stadium. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Despite gaining over 1,000 yards for the 7th time in his 11th season in the NFL, the New England Patriots tapered Stefon Diggs’ snap count in every game this year. His peak opportunity (69%) came in Week 11 against the Jets. He finished the season ranked third at wide receiver in playing time (53.7%) behind Mack Hollins (60.2%) and Kayshon Boutte (55.5%), with the latter two wideouts missing five combined games.

When at his best, Diggs gained over 100 yards in five contests (6/101, 10/146, 9/105, 9/138, and 6/101/1) while scoring in three other matchups. The Patriots gave him six targets or fewer in five of his last six starts (10 times on the year). His catch rate (83.3%) was elite. 

The Los Angeles Chargers finished the regular season ranked eighth in wide receiver defense (178/2,167/10 on 30 targets). Wideouts gained 12.2 yards per catch with a low catch rate (59.1%). Here’s a list of the best wide receiver performances against the Chargers this year:

• Marquise Brown (10/99)
• Courtland Sutton (6/118/1)
• Deebo Samuel (8/96/1)
• Jaylen Waddle (6/95)
• Alec Pierce (5/98)
• Michael Pittman (7/58/1)
• Justin Jefferon (7/74)
• A.J. Brown (6/100)
• George Pickens (7/130/1)
• Jayden Higgins (2/88/1)

In this week’s projections, I have New England scoring three touchdowns, with an even split between the rushing (1.5 TDs) and passing (1.5). The Patriots will make some big plays in the passing game, but they should also run the ball effectively. 

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) reacts against the Miami Dolphins during the second half at Gillette Stadium. | David Butler II-Imagn Images

I have Diggs projected to catch five passes for 55 yards with a 25% chance of scoring. If Drake Maye finishes with at least two passing touchdowns, Diggs would be the player most likely rewarded with a bump in his scoring opportunity. Over 17 games in the regular season, Diggs scored in only 23.5% of his games and reached the endzone on 4.7% of his catches. 

Here are the wide receiver stats allowed by Los Angeles over their last five games:

• PHI (12/159 on 25 targets)
• KC (11/133 on 19 targets – backup quarterback)
• DAL (17/213/2 on 23 targets)
• HOU (12/221/2 on 20 targets)
• DEN (7/46 on 11 targets – the Chargers played backup players, leading to a conservative offense by the Broncos).

This year, the Patriots’ wide receivers caught 208 of their 283 targets (73.5%) for 2,845 yards (13.7 yards per catch) and 19 touchdowns. Drake Maye was sacked 31 times while averaging 29.5 passes per game.