UFC 319 Chimaev vs Du Plessis: Top Value DFS Picks and Key Fight Analysis

UFC 319 arrives in Chicago tomorrow night as Khamzat Chimaev challenges Dricus Du Plessis for the Middleweight title. This comes as a massively hyped fight commanding some of the biggest media attention I feel that I have seen in awhile. Chimaev is a highly toued wrestling phenom out of Chechnya. Du Plessis is a star from South Africa. They both bring a global presence.

Underneath them will be former Bellator superstar, Aaron Pico challenging 6th ranked featherweight, Lerone Murphy. The card also features the ever elusive Michael "Venom" Page against Jared Cannonier. Geoff Neal faces Carlos Prates in a power-packed fifteen minutes. This card showcases endless talent, and so it will be fantastic to watch.

Key Fight Preview:

Chimaev vs Du Plessis

Khamzat Chimaev comes with relentless grappling pressure. He averages 4.31 takedowns landed per fight with a 46% accuracy. He will chase all fight long. As for Du Plessis, he only defends takedowns at a 50% rate. Though Du Plessis is also a wrestler, he is not on the level of Chimaev. I expect this fight to be very much in the clinch and ground, where Chimaev dominates. Some have concern of cardio, but Chimaev expects to come in more prepared than ever. Not for nothing, Du Plessis tires as well.

Pick: Chimaev by Submission

Murphy vs Pico

Aaron Pico comes with fantastic wrestling. He even lived in Dagestan for awhile. He has a gold medal history wrestling for team USA. Pico is 13-4, but his only loss in over six years came by a shoulder injury. Pico demonstrates grappling and notable power, knocking out 69% of his wins.

As for Murphy, he displays world-class footwork. His punching accuracy is among the best in the UFC with 54% accuracy and 61% defended.

I project the fight to be a mix of grappling and boxing. Will Murphy fend off the takedowns? His defense rate is 52%, but with his footwork, he may further deny any attempts. I anticipate that Murphy may leverage his elite cardio and footwork to pull off another win against a non-UFC newcomer.

Pick: Murphy by Points

Neal vs Prates

This is a fight of pure punching ability. This will be bloody and wild. Expect this matchup to stay fully on the feet. Prates is the more accurate offensive fighter with Geoff Neal works a better counter, defensive game. As neither fighter has a brass-chin, a knockout is inevitable here. Prates is younger with a slight height and reach advantage. I will project him to deal more damage and get the job done.

Pick: Prates by TKO (Ground and Pound or Injury)

Cannonier vs Page

Michael "Venom" Page is the much better striker. Cannonier has just a 50% punching accuracy, contrary to the belief that he is an elite striker. I have not subscribed to his hype. Cannonier is just solid. Page owns a 62% punching accuracy and thus, will have a field day in here. Michael Page does fight up to 185 pounds in this matchup, but this does not worry me. He has to cut less weight thus may be just as energized as he would like. The storyline that Jared was a heavyweight runs thin as he has lost many key fights.

Pick: Page by Points

Elliott vs Asakura

There is a lot to unpack here. Kai Asakura made his UFC debut in a championship fight with Alexandre Pantoja. The UFC reached for this fight as the contending pool was spread thin. Pantoja showed that this was no match as he submitted Asakura in round two.

Kai Asakura comes from RIZIN, a top japanese promotion. Though he has been a force, he has only lost twice of recent (24-5-2 Hiromasa Ougikubo, 28-3 Kyoji Horiguchi). Asakura is a huge finisher, winning 76% in the distance, but he lost three times by KO and once by submission. I would say that Asakura is vulnerable.

Tim Elliott is a relentless grappler. He attempts over seven takedowns per fight with a 47% accuracy. However, Elliott is very poor on his feet. He has won 35% by submission and 50% by points. He also has lost six times by points, proving that he will fight aggressive, but also high-risk.

I will say that Asakura manages to fight methodically enough to deal damage on Elliott and secure the victory.

Pick: Asakura by Points

DFS Value Picks:

Our goal is to chase finishes, and so where does this happen?

Chase Hooper - $9,300 (DraftKings) | $22 (FanDuel)

Hooper is facing off against Alexander Hernandez. This should almost definitely be a finish. Hooper is a far better striker, both offensively and defensively. Expect him to break down the confidence of Hernandez. Alex Hernandez has lost 3 times by KO displaying a weak chin. If a knockout does not occur, Hooper is a submission specialist. Alex may have a 71% takedown defense, but he can easily get broken down and tired into a rear-naked choke.

Carlos Prates - $9,100 (DraftKings) | $20 (FanDuel)

I expect Prates to find a KO in here, but if he does not, he will still accumulate a high count of significant strikes. Finish or not, Prates has a very low floor.

Khamzat Chimaev - $8,900 (DraftKings) | $19 (FanDuel)

It is quite surprising that you can get Chimaev at this price. This is a five round fight and if anyone wins early, it will be Chimaev, thus accumulating early-finish points. Chimaev will land plenty of strikes whether in the clinch or not, command ground control, and rack up points.

Bryan Battle - $8,600 (DraftKings) | $16 (FanDuel)

Ruziboev has 20 career submissions, but he has not found any in the UFC. This implies that his competition was way below the UFC talent pool. In this fight, Battle is the far better striker. He has a 6% better striking accuracy, and this is a fight where it is all offensive striking and no defensive. Bryan Battle also has a 33% KO percentage and 42% submission. He will fend off any submission attempts and break down Ruziboev. I fully can see a Battle knockout in round 2 or 3. If not, Battle strikes at an extremely high rate. He will rack up the significant strikes.

It appears Battle has missed weight again. This comes after a forced move up to 185 from 170. He seems so struggle to cut weight. Expect a catch-weight where I still favor Battle with heavier weight on.

Bryan Battle went up an from 170 to 185 after frequent weight misses at welterweight

And STILL manages to weigh 4lbs over.

Official weight: 190lbs #UFC319 pic.twitter.com/lDZ9jlPTbt
— Kenny Okoye🇳🇬 (@TruthfulUfcFan) August 15, 2025