UFC Fight Night Usman vs. Buckley DFS Breakdown and Strategy

The UFC returns to Atlanta for the first time since 2019 with a stacked card headlined by the former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman taking on the red hot contender Joaquin Buckley. While this main event has the potential to be a banger, there are plenty of great opportunities to build contrarian lineups on a very chalky card.

Kamaru Usman ($7200) vs. Joaquin Buckley ($9000)

Scoring Opportunities:
Usman: Chain wrestling, clinch control, takedowns
Buckley: Striking, power shots, knockout power, damage

Strategy: Usman provides a lot of value if you think his knees will hold up. Buckley has a very high ceiling due to KO potential but will be chalk in terms of ownership.

Rose Namajunas ($9100) vs. Miranda Maverick ($7100)

Scoring Opportunities
Namajunas: Striking, Octagon control, volume
Maverick: Wrestling, takedowns, submission attempts

Strategy: Rose has a very high ceiling here if she can neutralize Miranda’s grappling and should be moderately owned so a good anchor for lineups. If you think Miranda can replicate Blanchfield’s performance against Rose then she is a good contrarian play if she can grind out a decision.

Edmen Shahbazyan ($8800) vs. Andre Petroski ($7400)

Scoring Opportunities
Shahbazyan: Striking, early damage, KO potential
Petroski: Wrestling, clinch control, takedowns

Strategy: Shabazyan isn’t very highly owned due to questions surrounding his fight IQ but high upside if Petroski gets sloppy with his standup defense. If you still have doubts about Shabazyan’s gas tank, then a great low risk, high upside play on Petroski

Cody Garbrandt ($7700) vs. Raoni Barcelos ($8500)

Scoring Opportunities
Garbrandt: Striking, volume KO potential
Barcelos: Takedowns, range kicks, gas tank and pressure

Strategy: Lots of value on both fighters here. Cody has the edge if he stays smart and maintains volume but Barcelos shouldn’t be highly owned and is more well rounded here and also has some finishing potential

Mansur Abdul-Malik ($9600) vs. Cody Brundage ($6600)

Scoring opportunities
MAM: Striking, takedowns, pressure
Brundage: KO power, dirty grappling setting up submissions, top control

Strategy: MAM is going to be one of the chalkiest fighters on the card, but is a good anchor if he does what he is supposed to do. Can take a long shot stab on Brundage here if you think he can make this fight grimey.

Alonzo Menifield ($6700) vs. Oumar Sy ($9500)

Scoring opportunities
Menifield: Striking, KO power, cage control against the fence
Sy: Range point fighting, takedowns, KO power

Strategy: Pretty volatile matchup. Menifield is being disrespected here to a degree and has finishing potential for a low owned fighter. If you don’t believe he will be able to figure out Sy’s range than Oumar is a good anchor to score on volume with finishing upside.

Paul Craig ($6900) vs. Rodolfo Bellato ($9300)

Scoring opportunities
Craig: Submission attempst, wrestling in guard
Bellato: Striking, volume, KO power

Strategy: Stab in the dark on Craig if he can get lucky and find Bellato’s back. Bellato will be highly owned but not entirely chalk so could be a good anchor lineup based on his well roundedness.

Michael Chiesa ($9200) vs. Court McGee ($7000)

Scoring opportunities
Chiesa: Takedowns, submission attempts, can point fight if it becomes a striking affair
McGee: Clinch wrestling, fence control, upside in close range striking

Strategy: Chiesa is chalk here, moderately owned and can match his value. McGee is the biggest stab on this card as he does not have much upside or a path to victory here.

Malcolm Wellmaker ($9200) vs. Kris Mouthino ($6400)

Scoring opportunities
Wellmaker: Forward pressure, power, KO potential
Mouthino: Durability, gas tank to drag in deep waters, range boxing

Strategy: Love Wellmaker to anchor a lot of lineups here. Mouthino should only be a longshot stab if you think the lights will be too brigh for Malcolm and he can pull off a stunner.

Cody Durden ($7600) vs. Jose Ochoa ($8600)

Scoring opportunities:
Durden: Wrestling, takedowns, ground and pound damage
Ochoa: Wild striking where he can land a shot, some submission potential

Stragegy: Not much to be said here. Durden will be highly owned at this price and Ochoa just isn’t very good so stay away unless you think Durden will revert to his old ways and leave his chin exposed.

Ricky Simon ($8700) vs. Cameron Smotherman ($6500)

Scoring opportunities
Simon: Pressure, takedowns, ground and pound, KO power
Smoetherman: Takedown, wrestling gas tank to get it to the scorecards

Strategy: Simon might be the best anchor on this card and will be overlooked. Smotherman is solely a contrarian play.

Ange Loosa ($8400) vs. Phil Rowe ($7800)

Scoring opportunities
Loosa: High volume striking, cardio, should dictate landscape of Octagon
Rowe: Power, power power, KO potential

Strategy: Both fighters provide great value moving off of chalkily owned strikers. Should have equal amounts of both in lineups to cover your tracks.

Vanessa Demopolous ($6800) vs. Jamey Lynn-Horth ($9400)

Scoring opportunities
Demopolous: Chain wrestling, submission attempts, volume striking and pressure
Lynn-Horth: Striking, cage control, point fighting

Stragegy: Lynn-Horth is way too highly priced here so completely fading this one. She won’t be overly owned so can use as an anchor if you are buying into the hype.