Underdog Fantasy NBA Finals Prop Predictions Today (Game 1): Fading Tyrese Haliburton

Get ready for Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals with three sharp Underdog Fantasy prop picks featuring Tyrese Haliburton, Lu Dort, and Andrew Nembhard.

Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton (0) reacts after shooting a three point basket during the second quarter against the New York Knicks of game four of the eastern conference finals for the 2025 NBA Playoffs at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. | Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

The 2025 NBA Finals tip off with a high-octane Game 1 showdown between the Pacers and Thunder, and there’s plenty of value to be found in the player prop market. From a rising backcourt contributor in Indiana to a defensive anchor with scoring upside in OKC, here are three spots we’re targeting on Underdog Fantasy.

Andrew Nembhard Over 10.5 Points

In two regular-season matchups against the Thunder, Andrew Nembhard lit it up. Averaging 29 minutes per game, the savvy guard posted an impressive 19.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 7.0 assists. While it’s a stretch to expect those same numbers against OKC’s elite defense, Indiana’s fast-paced offense—paired with the Thunder’s scoring firepower—should create plenty of opportunities on both ends. And if the Pacers hope to steal Game 1, they’ll need someone beyond Haliburton and Siakam to step up.

History is on Nembhard’s side. Over the past two postseasons, he’s topped this points line in 22 of 28 games when logging between 28 and 40 minutes, averaging 14.4 points per contest. The Thunder may be one of the stingiest defenses in the league, but with so much defensive focus on Indiana’s stars, Nembhard should find some open looks from deep—and he’s nearly guaranteed a few trips to the free-throw line. All signs point to him having a strong showing on the road in Game 1.

Andrew Nembhard in Game 6:

14 PTS
8 AST
6 STL (!!)

The most steals ever by a player in a Conference Finals closeout game. pic.twitter.com/CJ1S8v3cAZ

— StatMuse (@statmuse) June 1, 2025

Lu Dort Over 12.5 Points + Rebounds

Lu Dort has consistently torched the Pacers throughout his career, and this season was no exception—he averaged 17.5 points and 6.0 rebounds across two regular-season matchups. While his three-point shot has been inconsistent this postseason (34.5%), Dort looks primed for a breakout in Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals on his home floor. He gained some momentum in the Thunder’s Game 5 win over the Timberwolves, knocking down four threes on his way to 12 points.

This line feels a bit too low for a player who’s locked into heavy minutes thanks to his relentless defense, and who’s shown a clear home-court boost all year long. Despite modest postseason averages (7.8 points, 3.6 boards), Dort is a strong candidate for positive regression toward his regular-season marks (10.1 points, 4.1 rebounds). Don’t be surprised if he makes a loud impact in the Finals opener.

Lu Dort named to 2024-25 @Kia NBA All-Defensive First Team 👏 pic.twitter.com/gjlKKcJ0dQ

— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) May 22, 2025

Tyrese Haliburton Under 26.5 Points + Assists

Don’t get me wrong—I fully expect Tyrese Haliburton to rack up assists. But since Underdog hasn’t posted a points-only line, we’re fading his Points + Assists combo for Game 1. Hear me out: the Thunder’s defense is elite when it comes to shutting down perimeter creation and pick-and-roll action. With defenders like Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace swarming the ball, Haliburton won’t have many clean looks off the dribble. And even when he does find a sliver of space, he’ll be met by the towering presence of Chet Holmgren or Isaiah Hartenstein at the rim.

Dating back to last season, Haliburton has averaged just 12.0 points over his last four games against OKC. In fact, among all 29 teams he faced this year, the Thunder held him to his lowest scoring average (11.0) and lowest usage rate (13.5%). He’s more than happy to lean into his role as a facilitator—but even if he tallies double-digit assists, it may not be enough to clear this line.