Week 16 Must-Roster NFL DFS Stars Featuring Quinshon Judkins & 3 Chargers Sleepers

The Dallas Cowboys/Los Angeles Chargers matchup hints that multiple players in this game could land on the winning tickets in the DFS market in Week 16. Finding star players at a discount can be the key to big wins if they regain their expected form.

Week 16 DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Affordable Sleeper Studs

Week 16 Fantasy Football / NFL DFS Sleeper: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers — Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) pass against the Philadelphia Eagles in the first half at SoFi Stadium. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (DK: $6,000/FD: $8,000)

Over his last five starts, Herbert has faded down the quarterback rankings. He averaged only 25.2 passes with weakness in his completion rate (60.3%) and yards per pass attempt (6.4). The Chargers delivered only five passing touchdowns over this span with four interceptions, with Herbert averaging 160 passing yards.

Los Angeles featured a top passing attack over their first 10 games (21.88 fantasy points per game in DraftKings scoring). Herbert averaged 35.8 pass attempts, leading to 2,934 combined yards with 20 touches. He has four impact games (31.10, 34.10, 28.55, and 31.20 fantasy points), showcasing his ceiling if the Chargers up their passing attempts.

Dallas has the worst defense in the NFL vs. quarterbacks (381.05 fantasy points). They’ve allowed 31 touchdowns, with QBs gaining 7.7 yards per pass attempt. Nine quarterbacks have scored at least 27.00 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdowns leagues.

Russell Wilson (473 combined yards with three touchdowns)
Caleb Williams (298/4 with 12 rushing yards)
Jordan Love (365 combined yards with four touchdowns)
Justin Fields (309 combined yards with two touchdowns)
Bo Nix (247/4)
Jalen Hurts (322 combined yards with three touchdowns)
Patrick Mahomes (291 combined yards with four touchdowns)
J.J. McCarthy (265 combined yards with three touchdowns)

The Chargers continue to win games by running the ball and playing well on defense. Herbert should have a 4X floor, giving him a bright shade of green in the DFS market in Week 16 despite his struggles over the past few weeks. The Cowboys will score points, and they will be without CB Daron Bland, which will help LA’s passing attack.

Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns (DK: $6,000/FD: $7,500)

Trust has left the building on starting Judkins in the fantasy market, as he has averaged only 3.0 yards per carry over his last 113 carries. The endzone (2) hasn’t been his friend over his previous seven starts, while averaging 9.40 fantasy points per game. The Browns had him on the field for a season-high 67% of their snaps in Week 16, but he struggled to make plays (17 combined yards with three catches on 15 touches).

The Bills continue to rank poorly defending running backs (366.10 fantasy points – 26th). Backs have 18 touchdowns while gaining 5.2 yards per carry. Four offenses have scored over 40.00 fantasy points from the running back position (ATL – 46.60, MIA – 42.80, TB – 42.20, and NE – 40.80).

Derrick Henry (18/169/2 with one catch for 13 yards)
Bijan Robinson (19/170/1 with eight catches for 68 yards)
De’Von Achane (22/174/2 with six catches for 51 yards)
Sean Tucker (19/106/2 with two catches for 34 yards and one score)
TreVeyon Henderson (14/148/2 with two catches for 13 yards)

Judkins has a favorable matchup, but his success starts with better quarterback play. Last week, Cleveland rotated in Trayveon Williams with Jerome Ford out for the season and Dylan Sampson injured. The Browns should score a rushing touchdown, and Judkins is a heavy favorite to be that player. He still possesses big-play ability, but daylight at the second level of a defense has rarely happened over recent weeks.

I view Judkins as a rotational back in the DFS market due to his potential ceiling in a favorable matchup. I have him on a path to gain 114 combined yards with one touchdown and three catches.

Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers (DK: $5,800/FD: $6,800)

The theme in this week’s mid-tier value report is loaded with Chargers plays due to their matchup and potential explosive ceilings. Hampton has only been on the field for 31% and 36% of LA’s running back snaps since returning from his seven missed games. Despite his RB2 opportunity, he averaged 15.5 touches over the past two weeks (13/56 with two catches for 11 yards and one touchdown and 15/61 with one catch for four yards).

When at his best in Week 3 and Week 4, Hampton produced two winning games (24.90 and 30.50 fantasy points), which plays well for his favorable salary.

The Cowboys give big plays in the run game (4.6 yards per carry) to running backs, with them also gaining 8.8 yards per catch. They rank 28th in fantasy points (369.70). Backs have scored 16 touchdowns. Three offenses scored over 38.00 fantasy points from their running backs (GB – 43.90, DEN – 38.80, and DET – 51.30).

Josh Jacobs (22/86/2 with four catches for 71 yards)
Rico Dowdle (239 combined yards with one touchdown and four catches)
Jahmyr Gibbs (120 combined yards with three touchdowns and seven catches)

The Chargers will rotate in two running backs, which could lead to Hampton getting sniped for touchdown chances. His best value would come in a chaser game, allowing him to get more pass-catching chances. My outlook is a 3X game, while understanding his ceiling if this matchup is high scoring.

Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers (DK: $6,100/FD: $7,000)

Week 16 Fantasy Football / NFL DFS Must-Roster Stud: Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles Chargers — Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey (15) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second quarter of the game at SoFi Stadium. | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

After 14 games, McConkey ranks 25th at wide receiver in PPR scoring (162.50 fantasy points), which is 11 spots lower than his rookie season (14th – 14.17 FPPG). The demise of the Chargers’ pass offense over recent weeks has led to him being a fantasy liability over the past four games (3/13, 4/39/1, 1/12, and 2/20). McConkey has only offered value in three games (7/100/1, 6/88/1, and 4/107/1). On the downside, he’s had six targets or fewer in six consecutive games.

The Cowboys have been crushed by wide receivers this season. They’ve allowed 24 touchdowns to wideouts, with them gaining 14.1 yards per catch. Dallas has the worst wide receiver defense (545.90 fantasy points). Five offenses have scored over 50.00 fantasy points (NYG – 19/370/3, CHI – 13/208/3, GB – 17/166/3, DEN – 12/214/3, and KC – 14/188/3).

Malik Nabers (9/167/2)
Wan’Dale Robinson (8/142/1)
Luther Burden (3/101/1)
Romeo Doubs (6/58/3)
Troy Franklin (7/96/1)
Marvin Harrison (7/96/1)
A.J. Brown (8/110/1)
Rashee Rice (8/92/2)

My DFS lineups this week start with Justin Herbert and McConkey. I have the Chargers’ top wide receiver projected to catch seven passes for 94 yards and one touchdown, ranking him third at wideout this week.

Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers (DK: $5,800/FD: $6,800)

Week 16 NFL DFS Sleeper: Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers — Carolina Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan (4) celebrates a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

After his best NFL game (8/130/2) in Week 11, the Panthers have only completed five passes of 13 targets to McMillan for 103 yards and two touchdowns. He slipped to 17th in wide receiver scoring (180.10 fantasy points) in PPR formats. McMillan hasn’t scored over 18.00 fantasy points in any other game in his rookie season.

Tampa Bay sits just below the league average in wide receiver defense (445.60 fantasy points) in PPR formats. They allow 12.5 yards per catch with wideouts scoring 11 touchdowns. Seattle (56.60) and the Rams (49.10) have had the most success in fantasy points.

Garrett Wilson (10/84/1)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (8/132/1)
Kendrick Bourne (5/142)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (6/86/1)
Mack Hollins (6/106)
Davante Adams (5/62/2)

The key for McMillan in this matchup is the Panthers' willingness to attack with the passing game, which has only happened in Week 11 (448/3) vs. the Falcons on the road. This year, Carolina has under 20 completions in 11 of its 14 matchups, giving its receivers fewer opportunities. On the positive side for McMillan is that the Panthers’ wide receivers have had seven touches over their last four games. I have him projected to catch six passes for 94 yards and one touchdown in Week 16, with Bryce Young having 32 pass attempts.