Tyler Shough, Brian Thomas & More Week 17 NFL DFS Value Plays on DraftKings & FanDuel
With only nine games played on the main slate on Sunday, studs will be premium in team building, which also requires finding value at the backend of the player pool. The alternative is finding a low-value game stack, which is often more difficult to identify.
Tyler Shough, New Orleans (DK: $5,200/FD: $7,300)
Over his last two home starts, Shough showed a progression in the passing game (272/1 and 308/1). His completion rate has been over 65.0% in his previous six starts while showing surprising value in the run game from Week 12 to Week 15 (7/22, 6/18, 7/55/2, and 8/32). Shough has yet to deliver a game with over two touchdowns.
Tennessee sits 23rd in quarterback defense (330.35 fantasy points) in PPR formats. They’ve allowed 28 touchdowns (25 passing and three rushing) to quarterbacks, with them gaining 7.9 yards per pass attempt. Over their previous nine contests, the Titans allowed over 20.00 fantasy points or more in seven games, three of which resulted in impact games.
- Justin Herbert (307 combined yards with three touchdowns)
- Shedeur Sanders (393 combined yards with four touchdowns)
- Brock Purdy (339 combined yards with three touchdowns)
A road game suggests a pullback in stats for Shough, but he does have a favorable salary for his recent output in fantasy points at DraftKings (19.4, 22.3, 18.10, and 20.10). I have him on a path to gain 280 combined yards with 1.5 passing touchdowns and a 25% chance of scoring on the ground.
Kenneth Gainwell, Pittsburgh Steelers (DK: $5,600/FD: $6,300)
The Steelers’ running backs have climbed to fifth in running back scoring (427.90) in PPR formats. They’ve scored 18 touchdowns while ranking second in receiving stats (99/725/5 on 115 targets).
Gainwell has over 100 combined yards in two consecutive games (126 yards with seven catches on 20 touches and 128 combined yards with five catches and a score). He has five playable fantasy days (29.50, 18.20, 16.20, 19.60, and 23.80) over the past seven weeks. Gainwell was a beast in his Week 4 start (19/99/2 with six catches for 35 yards).
The Browns rank 12th in running back defense (314.10 fantasy points) in PPR formats. They hold backs to 4.0 yards per carry with 13 touchdowns. Game score has led to offenses upping their rushing attempts against Cleveland in six (35, 33, 33, 35, 33, and 29) of their previous eight matchup, leading to eight running back touchdowns over the last four games and regression in fantasy points allowed over the past seven weeks (27.60, 30.10, 29.80, 24.70, 34.80, 26.10, and 39.40).
Gainwell has out-snapped Jayen Warren in back-to-back games (52% to 45% and 54% to 49%) while showcasing a high floor in catches in five (7/81/2, 6/30, 6/27, 7/46, and 5/78/1) over his previous six contests. An RB2 in the DFS market may only need to score 18.00 fantasy points this week due to the shorter slate. Gainwell falls in this range in Week 17.
Brian Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: $5,200/FD: $6,300)
Over the last two weeks, Trevor Lawrence passed 609 yards with 46 completions and eight touchdowns, but accounted for only six catches for 84 yards and one touchdown on 10 targets. The Jaguars had him on the field for 77% and 73% of their snaps, giving him an WR2 opportunity in playing time. His only game of value this year came in Week 6 (8/90/1 on 10 targets). Thomas had three catches for 87 yards in his earlier matchup against the Colts.
Indianapolis ranks 30th vs. wide receivers (540.10 fantasy points) in PPR formats. They’ve allowed a league high 201 catches for 2,551 yards and 14 touchdowns on 316 targets. The Rams’ and Chargers’ wideouts ripped up their secondary in Week 4 (19/321/3) and Week 7 (24/239/2). Four other teams gained over 200 receiving yards from their wide receivers over the past five weeks.
- Puka Nacua (13/170/1)
- Keenan Allen (11/119/1)
- Drake London (6/104/1)
- Rashee Rice (8/141)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (7/113)
Thomas brings a sketchy resume to Week 17, but his quarterback is trending higher, and he has the talent to post an impact game if game flow breaks his way. I have him projected to be a backend WR2 (4/60 with a 75% chance of scoring) in Week 17.
Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts (DK: $4,900/FD: $6,000)
Over the last six weeks, Pittman has been a losing investment in the fantasy market in four games (2/19, 1/13, 3/26, and 4/32) while having his best outcome against the Jaguars (9/79). He scored six touchdowns over his first eight starts, with his best value coming over a three-game stretch (7/58/1, 8/95/1, and 9/115).
The Jaguars have faced the most wide receiver targets (328) this season, leading to 199 catches for 2,211 yards and 14 touchdowns. They rank 22nd vs. wideouts (504.10 fantasy points). On the positive side, Jacksonville allows the lowest yards per catch (11.1) to wide receivers. Ten offenses scored over 35.00 fantasy points from their wideout this year.
- Ja’Marr Chase (14/165/1)
- Nico Collins (8/104/1)
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (8/162/1)
- Nico Collins (7/136)
- Michael Collins (10/118)
Philip Rivers looked the part of a capable passing quarterback last week (277/2 with 23 completions). He gained 7.9 yards per pass attempt, giving the Colts’ fans hope that a win over the Jaguars and a loss by Houston will set up a Week 18 matchup with the winner advancing to the postseason.
Pittman needs to be more active and score to reach 20.00 fantasy points, a total he reached four times this season. The Colts’ top wideout ranks 14th in wide receiver scoring (195.70 fantasy points) in PPR formats, showcasing his potential in this game.