Patrick Mahomes' Rushing Upside Raises a Big Question for Fantasy Football
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The Kansas City Chiefs are coming into 2026 with a hunger. The team failed to meet postseason expectations in 2025. Amid a Pat Mahomes injury, it all went bad for the recent 3-time Super Bowl Champions. Luckily, they get their Hall of Fame quarterback back. Mahomes is returning from his torn ACL and LCL and plans to play in Week 1.
Fantasy Football Impact
The situation is not as fluid as some may think. While Mahomes is still likely to be gold, his legs raise questions for fantasy managers. We wonder if Mahomes can bring any rushing upside to the table, or will he stay flat-footed? That will drastically impact Mahomes' overall value as a QB1 or QB2 in fantasy football.
Every report has been to Mahomes' praise. Early in August, he told the media that he feels "great." Andy Reid confirmed the same sentiment when meeting with the media.
An August 18 report out of Kansas City further praised the way their quarterback looks. "Mahomes continues to look outstanding as he works his way back to full strength," Matt McMullen of Chiefs.com wrote. It was further written that McMillen "saw Mahomes roll to his right before stopping on a dime as a looming defender went flying by." That play is one example of Mahomes' ability to make a sharp stop without showing any knee aggravation.
The Chiefs have never featured an offense that runs the ball designed for their quarterback. That is a good thing for fantasy managers. Mahomes is an improvisational runner, and given his competitive fire to win football games, he surely will not make it a point of staying behind the line of scrimmage. Designed runs, obviously, are not a requirement for his upside and thus, not a penalty for Mahomes' ability to achieve his rushing measures in 2026.
Posolutely, Mahomes will be mildly cautious. He will not chase contact. However, when the gap opens, Mahomes is going to take those gains of a few yards. The overall analysis concludes that Mahomes' rushing will be down this season, but far from dead.
What the Numbers Say
Given that the quarterback position is very wide open in 2026 fantasy football, Mahomes falls to just QB13 in my latest projections. However, the gap is thin from QB6 down to QB15. They are all separated by 1.0 fantasy point per game. For that reason, a smart drafting mind will favor touchdown upside, which Mahomes clearly has. At ADP, the pick is not all that terrible. You will want a handcuff to be safe, perhaps being Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, or CJ Stroud.
Most seasons, Mahomes has ranged from 275 to 425 rushing yards. Last year, his numbers were up to an all-time high of 422 rushing yards across 14 games. We can give thanks to the teams that lacked skill in the passing game, which forced Mahomes to be more mobile.
The fact is, Mahomes is estimated to have a decrease in rushing. My projections list Mahomes at 10 rushing yards per game, or 170 for the season, but with upside to nearly 300. It will be volatile. Given that the Chiefs have a workhorse running back (Kenneth Walker III) for the first time in years, I do find it very reasonable that Mahomes could have one of his lowest-volume rushing seasons.
Are you going to be drafting Mahomes? Let me hear you take on X — @TCarelliTakes.
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Thomas Carelli is a sportswriter based on Northern New Jersey. He is a massive New York Jets and Mets fan, but that is not where is sports fandom stops. He loves to watch and play golf, all things football, baseball, and much more. If he can watch it, he will. Thomas graduated from William Paterson University in 2018 with a Bachelor's Degree in Sport Management. He spent 4 years working at a local golf course, volunteered past PGA events, and spent some part-time experience with the New York Jets events team. His passions for sport runs deep and his articles show for it.