2025 Fantasy Baseball: Bailey Ober Profile, Preview, Predictions

Bailey Ober is a mountain of a man who brings a below-par fastball. He makes up for this shortfall with plus command and two winning secondary pitches (changeup and slider). Home runs can be a problem, leading to some bad innings.

Bailey Ober's 6th, 7th and 8th Ks. pic.twitter.com/gLG2MG0wos
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 1, 2024

SP – Bailey Ober, MIN (ADP – 80.1)

2025 Bailey Ober Starting Stats Profile | Shawn Childs

Injuries were a problem for Ober in 2022, leading to him missing two and a half months with a groin injury. When on the mound with the Twins, he posted a 3.21 ERA and 51 strikeouts over 56.0 innings.

Ober was an emerging arm the following season. He pitched over 110.0 innings for the first time in his career (167.0 between AAA and the majors). He tossed at least five innings in 24 of his 26 major league starts but only six innings in 12 outings (only once after July 23rd). Ober had a 2.76 ERA, 0.972 WHIP, .215 BAA, and 90 strikeouts over his first 94.2 innings. He crushed fantasy teams over six starts (21 runs, 47 baserunners, and eight home runs over 28.0 innings) midsummer while driving the bus home with success in September (2.08 ERA over 21.2 innings with three walks and 26 strikeouts).

The fantasy market gravitated toward his value arm last year due to plus command (1.8 walks per nine) and a rising strikeout rate (9.1). Unfortunately, Ober stumbled out of the gate in his first start (eight runs, 10 base runners, and three home runs over 1.1 innings). By the middle of June, he still had a 4.81 ERA with a more favorable WHIP (1.185). His correction in stats came over his next 75.0 innings (3.12 ERA, 0.853 WHIP, and 82 strikeouts) despite allowing nine runs, nine baserunners, and two home runs over two innings on August 26th. Ober didn’t win a game over his final nine appearances while struggling over his final four outings (5.32 ERA and five home runs over 23.2 innings).

He pitched up in the strike zone (50.3% fly-ball rate), which promoted more balls landing in the seats. His average fastball (91.7) aligned with his last two seasons. Ober succeeded with his changeup (.154 BAA), slider (.212 BAA), and show-me curveball (.000 BAA). Right-handed batters hit .277 with seven home runs off his four-seamer.

Fantasy Outlook: Ober set career highs in wins (12) and strikeouts (191) last season while finishing with an edge in WHIP (1.002). With 178.2 innings pitches, he looks poised to make 32 starts in 2025. The sum of his parts grades well while needing to fix his issues with home runs, especially against righties with his fastball. He is a steady, helpful arm but not a foundation ace. His next step should be a 3.50 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and 200 strikeouts. Ober was the 17th-best starting pitcher by FPGscore (2.48) last season.

SP – Bailey Ober, MIN (ADP – 80.1)

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