2025 Fantasy Baseball: Pablo Lopez Profile, Preview, Predictions

Pablo Lopez gets ahead in the count with stretches of brilliance. There are times when batters get the best of him. His fastball has plenty of life, but he needs to find his missing changeup to regain consistency from start to start.

Pablo López, 98mph and 97mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/SuWyVlAZRX
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 24, 2024

SP – Pablo Lopez, MIN (ADP – 63.3)

2025 Pablo Lopez Pitching Stats Profile | Shawn Childs

Over the past two years, Lopez lowered his walk rate (2.2 and 2.0), highlighted by his improved first-pitch strike rate (68.9 and 67.4). He’s made 32 starts in three consecutive seasons while posting some variance with his strikeouts per nine innings (10.1, 8.7, 10.9, and 9.6). On the negative side, his hits per nine innings have risen since 2021 (7.8, 7.9, 8.2, and 8.7), along with more home runs allowed (1.0, 1.1, 1.1, and 1.3) per nine.

In 2024, Lopez had five disaster starts (31 runs, 45 baserunners, and seven home runs over 22.2 innings) over nine games from May 20th to July 5th (6.47 ERA, 1.334 WHIP, and 10 home runs over 48.2 innings). After 18 outings, his ERA (5.18) crushed teams, but his WHIP (1.192) suggested better days coming if fewer balls landed in the seats. Lopez posted a 2.81 ERA and 1.193 WHIP over his final 14 starts, with 82 strikeouts and nine home runs allowed. Over this span, he had one poor showing (9/22 – seven runs, 10 baserunners, and two home runs over four innings).

His arm didn’t have an advantage against left-handed pitching (.267 BAA) while showing more risk on the road (4.50 ERA) due to more home runs (16) and walks (27) over 98.0 innings.

Despite his regression, his average fastball (95.1) was a career-best, with a slight uptick in usage (39.8% - 35.1 in 2023). Lopez dominated with his four-seam fastball (.208 BAA) while offering two other plus pitches (slider – .238 BAA and curveball – .227 BAA). His changeup (.279 BAA) lost value in back-to-back seasons after being his best pitch in 2022 (.219 BAA) based on his usage (35.2%). Last year, left-handed batters had more success vs. his changeup (.285 BAA) and slider (.302 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Lopez falls into my avoid category I mentioned earlier in Corbin Burnes’s profile. I’m fading pitchers in 2025 with a decline of one strikeout per nine innings. I don’t like Lopez's direction. He’s giving up more home runs and hits, leading to too many bad days. If his search party can find his lost changeup, his overall package in 2025 would be more enticing. I have trust issues, and 24 starting pitchers were better than him last season. Any investment in him this year requires a spring training watch to see if his pitch mix changes.

SP – Pablo Lopez, MIN (ADP – 63.3)

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