2025 MLB All-Star Break: Will Smith, Max Fried Headline Regression Candidates

Baseball's celebration of its top players has come and gone. The American League erased a six-run deficit in the All-Star Game on Tuesday night, but the National League won an exciting swing-off Home Run Derby-styled tiebreaker.

After two more days off, the MLB will resume play on Friday. Although technically the season is already more than halfway completed, July 18 is the unofficial start to the second half of the 2025 campaign.

Unfortuantely for some players, it could also mark the beginning of a decline. Some All-Star nominations will have a hard time repeating what they did during the first three months of the season.

Here are four players who made the 2025 All-Star roster who are candidates to regress over the next few months.

Will Smith, Catcher, Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers catcher leads the NL with a .323 batting average and .425 on-base percentage. But it doesn't really take a deep dive into the analytics to realize that Smith is unlikely to continue that pace.

Catchers just naturally wear down as the season goes. It's the nature of the position, and it happens to just about all of them, regardless of offensive skill.

Over the first six seasons of his career, Smith has posted a .242 batting average and .777 OPS after the All-Star break. Before the break, he owns a .279 average and .869 OPS in his career.

Smith should still finish with some of the best offensive catcher numbers this season. But he's not likely to catch fire again in August and September.

Javier Báez, Outfielder, Detroit Tigers

Báez started his third MLB All-Star Game at a different position Tuesday night thanks to a .275 average and .752 OPS. His OPS is 236 points higher this season than last year.

But Báez benefitted during the first half from a .325 BABIP. Last season, he registered a .220 BABIP.

Báez owns a career .314 BABIP, so this year's mark is much closer to what he's used to doing in the category. But the center fielder has managed to posted a BABIP 105 points higher this season despite a drop in hard hit rate according to Fangraphs.

From 2022-24, Báez registered a .270 BABIP. It wouldn't be surprising if his 2025 BABIP was closer to that mark than the .325 he submited in the first half. If it is, Báez will likely see at least some decline in production.

Robbie Ray, Starting Pitcher, San Francisco Giants

The right-hander returned to the All-Star Game this season for the first time since 2017. He went 9-3 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in 20 starts during the first half.

But he did that while striking out nearly three fewer batters per nine innings than last season. Ray only pitched 30.2 innings a year ago, but his career K/9 rate is 10.9.

If he continues to strike out hitters at a 9.7 K/9 rate, he might not be able to keep up his career-best ERA. Ray has a 3.87 career ERA in 12 MLB seasons.

Ray has a 3.49 FIP this season. If he falls back to the mean, he won't be as strong of a pitcher the final two months.

Max Fried, Starting Pitcher, New York Yankees

Fried returned to Truist Park for the first time during All-Star week since leaving Atlanta this offseason. He didn't pitch in the game, though, and The AJC's Gabe Burns reported Monday that Fried isn't sure he will pitch this weekend when the Yankees face the Braves in Atlanta.

Fried is dealing with a blister on his pinky finger.

The southpaw had blister issues throughout his tenure with the Braves. He always still managed to pitch well. Fried is arguably experiencing a career season this year.

But if the blister issue persists, Fried could regress in the second half. He might anyway. Over his final three starts before the All-Star break, the lefty registered a 6.43 ERA with a 5.15 FIP.

Fried has a shot to lead the AL in wins. Fantasy managers just shouldn't expect him to register a sub-2.00 ERA like he did in March/April and June.