Connelly Early, Andrew Painter Headline 2026 Fantasy Baseball Deep Breakout Pitchers

Finding impact arms in the late rounds is one of the biggest edges in fantasy baseball, and the 2026 player pool is loaded with high-upside young starters going outside the top 200 picks. These deep breakout candidates—headlined by rising prospects like Andrew Painter and Robby Snelling—have the talent, opportunity, and underlying metrics to dramatically outproduce their ADP.

SP64 – Connelly Early, Boston Red Sox (NFBC ADP – 223)

The Red Sox selected Early in the fifth round of the 2023 MLB June Amateur Draft after success over three years in college (23-9 with 3.01 ERA, 1.209 WHIP, and 227 strikeouts over 209.1 innings). His growth in 2023 at Virginia (12-3 with a 3.09 ERA, 1.202 WHIP, and 100 strikeouts over 87.1 innings) was led by a much lower walk rate (2.4) and more zip on his fastball.

Over the past two seasons, between High A and AAA, Early went 13-12 with a 3.31 ERA, 1.147 WHIP, and 270 strikeouts over 204.0 innings. He reached elite status in 2025 in the minors (10-3 with a 2.60 ERA, 1.106 WHIP, and 132 strikeouts over 100.1 innings). His walk rate (3.5) in the minors still needs work, but Early upped his strikeout rate (12.0).

Boston gave him four starts in September, leading to a 2.33 ERA, 1.086 WHIP, and 29 strikeouts over 19.1 innings. The Yankees banged him around in the playoffs (three runs, seven baserunners, and six strikeouts over 3.2 innings).

His average fastball (93.8 mph) was about league average. Early featured a five-pitch arsenal – four-seamer (.189 BAA), slider (.290 BAA), changeup (.194 BAA), curveball (.185 BAA), and sinker (.235 BAA). His pitching success stats weren’t from all his games last year between the minors and majors.

Connelly Early 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: Boston gave Early 123.1 innings of work last year, putting him on track to pitch 150.0 innings in 2026 if needed. The Red Sox have about six starting options for two rotation spots, heading into spring training. His ceiling looks higher than scouts believed coming into last year, thanks to his increased velocity on his fastball and his elite changeup.

The cloudiness of his starting opportunity suggests that Early is priced too high in early February. I like his arm and ceiling, but I would prefer to buy him at a discount. His spring training news will be the key to the price point in fantasy drafts.

SP88 – Logan Henderson, Milwaukee Brewers (NFBC ADP – 299)

Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Logan Henderson (43) delivers a pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the second inning at PNC Park. | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Henderson was a special player in 12 of his first 13 starts last year. He opened 2025 with a poor showing (five runs, nine baserunners, three home runs, and eight strikeouts over four innings). He picked up 10 wins over his next 12 games, between AAA and the majors, while allowing one run or fewer in 11 games (1.43 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, and 76 innings over 50.1 innings).

Unfortunately, Henderson picked up a right elbow injury in August, ending his success without surgery. His fade over his final seven starts in the minors (22 runs, 41 baserunners, and 32 strikeouts over 34.1 innings), with an ok showing in his final start in August with the Brewers (one run, five baserunners, and 4.1 innings with nine strikeouts).

Henderson went 4-0 earlier in the season with the Brewers. He allowed one run in each game, leading to a 1.73 ERA, 0.952 WHIP, and 29 strikeouts over 21.0 innings. Over four seasons in the minors, he went 21-14 with a 3.26 ERA, 1.023 WHIP, and 320 strikeouts over 251.1 innings.

His average fastball (93.1 mph) was about league average. Henderson featured an electric changeup (.161 BAA) and a winning four-seamer (.196 BAA). He also mixed two show-me pitches (cutter – .000 BAA and curve – .500 BAA).

Logan Henderson 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: Henderson brings command, with strikeout ability, and batters struggled to make hard contact. Without his elbow issue last summer, he would be a slam-dunk target for me. Earlier in his minor league career, Henderson missed some time with a fractured right elbow and an oblique injury.

The Brewers expected to be healthy coming into spring training, with an excellent shot of starting all season in the majors. I expect Henderson's stock to rise this spring, so there will be a break point on when to draft him. His range is between a breakout deep sleeper and some missed time with another elbow issue.

SP104 – Robby Snelling, Miami Marlins (NFBC ADP – 104)

Miami Marlins pitcher Robby Snelling (61). | Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

The Padres drafted Snelling with the 39th overall selection in the 2022 MLB June Amateur Draft out of high school. His left arm hit the ground running over three levels of the minors (A, High A, and AA) in 2023 (11-3 with 1.82 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, and 118 strikeouts over 103.2 innings). His command (5.2 walks per nine) regressed over his 17.1 innings at AA.

San Diego shipped him to Miami in 2024 after getting drilled over 16 starts at AA (2-8 with a 6.01 ERA, 1.677 WHIP, and 67 strikeouts over 73.1 innings). He rebounded over seven games at the same level with Miami (4.00 ERA, 1.222 WHIP, and 41 strikeouts over 36.0 innings).

Snelling struggled again over his first 11 starts at AA (4.47 ERA, 1.178 WHIP, and 64 strikeouts over 54.1 innings) last season. He pitched at an elite level over his final 14 starts (1.21 ERA, 0.955 WHIP, and 103 strikeouts over 81.2 innings).

In his limited-rated games in 2025, his average fastball (94.8 mph) was an asset. Snelling worked with a four-seamer (.151 BAA), curveball (.215 BAA), changeup (.212 BAA), slider (.367 BAA), and a show-me sinker (.222 BAA).

Robby Snelling 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: Snelling is the most intriguing young arm listed over the last 15 pitchers or so that I’ve researched. His spring training will drive his fantasy value, putting him on track to be in Miami quickly in 2026. He has 11 games of experience at AAA, with improved velocity and stellar success over the last three months of 2025. Snelling falls into the deep sleeper category this year.

SP113 – Andrew Painter, Philadelphia Phillies (NFBC ADP – 370)

The Philadelphia Phillies drafted Painter 13th overall in the 2021 MLB June Amateur Draft out of high school. Based on his start to his minor league career (6-2 with a 1.48 ERA, 0.875 WHIP, and 167 strikeouts over 109.2 innings) in 2022, Painter is on the fast track to the majors.

Unfortunately, Painter had TJ surgery in July of 2023, leading to two missed years. His arm flashed at the fall of the next season in the Arizona Fall League (2-0 with a 2.30 ERA, 0.894 WHIP, and 18 strikeouts over 15.2 innings).

Last season, Painter had four short-inning stints at A-ball (five runs, 11 baserunners, and 12 strikeouts over 11.1 innings) before his promotion to AAA in early May. After progressing over starts (2-0 with a 2.65 ERA, 1.235 WHIP, and 20 strikeouts over 17.0 innings), he never pitched well enough to require a call-up to Philadelphia (5.92 ERA, 1.606 WHIP, and 91 strikeouts over 89.2 innings).

Painter battled home runs (1.5 per nine), with much weaker command (3.6 walks per nine). His average fastball (96.9 mph) had plenty of life over his graded games in the minors. He featured a four-seamer (.323 BAA), slider (.283 BAA), curveball (.184 BAA), changeup (.137 BAA), and a show-me sinker (.450 BAA).

Andrew Painter 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: After a disaster season, Painter has lost his fantasy luster, at least in the early draft season in the high-stakes market. Once he steps on a spring training mound and shows better command with elite velocity, I expect him to move up draft boards.

His ceiling points to ace upside, but there will be a learning curve at the major league level. The bet on Painter is on his pedigree, and his price point is more than fair in 2026. He’ll turn 23 in early April, so it’s showtime for him to shine under the big lights.

Drafting from this tier is about balancing risk and ceiling, but the payoff can be league-changing if even one of these arms hits. Monitor spring training roles, velocity trends, and command gains closely, because the price on these deep sleepers will rise quickly once their paths to innings become clear.