Why Corbin Carroll Could Outperform His First-Round ADP in 2026 Fantasy Baseball

Corbin Carroll offers rare power-speed upside in fantasy baseball, with his 2026 value hinging on balancing aggressiveness with batting-average stability.

Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll against the San Francisco Giants at Chase Field. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Corbin Carroll remains one of fantasy baseball’s most tantalizing upside plays, even if his full five-category ceiling hasn’t aligned in a single season yet. With elite speed, improving power indicators, and a growing ability to adjust at the plate, Carroll continues to profile as a potential league-winner when things click.

OF4 – Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks (NFBC ADP – 9)

The pieces to Corbin’s high ceiling haven’t come together in one season yet in his young career in the majors, but their magic is in his profile and his potential. Over the past three years, he scored 53.8% of the time when on base via a hit or walk. His average hit rate (2.089) moved to a range comparable to the top power hitters in the game. In 2023, Corbin flashed difference-maker speed (54 stolen bases), followed up by two productive years (35 and 32).

Last season, he missed just over two weeks late in June with a fractured left wrist. His strikeout rate (23.8%) was well above his past two seasons (19.4% and 19.0%), inviting risk to his batting-average ceiling. Corbin had a rebound in his contact batting average (.355) after underachieving his previous resume in 2024 (.296). His RBI chances (339) lower his ceiling in RBIs. Arizona split his at-bats last year between the first three slots in the batting order.

Does Corbin Carroll have a FOURTH straight 30+ SB season on the horizon? 🐍 pic.twitter.com/UQqWDnKeJO

— MLB (@MLB) February 4, 2026

His exit velocity (92.1), launch angle (16.7), barrel rate (14.5%), and hard-hit rate (49.9%) were all well above his previous two seasons. Corbin transitioned to a high flyball hitter (45.3% - 39.2% in 2024), while setting a three-year high in his HR/FB rate (16.5%).

Corbin had 21 home runs over his first 322 at-bats in 2025, but his batting average (.245) was a liability, along with a higher strikeout rate (25.8%). His profile flipped in the second half, leading to a better approach (21.4% strikeout rate), with a downtick in home runs (10), more steals (21), and a higher batting average (.277) over 242 at-bats. He struggled more on the road (.245/49/17/45/12 over 277 at-bats) and against lefties (.246/21/8/27/12 over 179 at-bats).

Corbin Carroll 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: Carroll has the tools to be a 30/50 player with a winning gear in batting average. The challenge for him is that his quest for power comes with a price in batting average and fewer times on base.

He ranked 11th in FPGscore (6.68) for hitters last season, up from 17th in 2024 (4.79) but down from 2023 (5th – 9.23). The improvement of Geraldo Perdomo could lead to a drop to third in the batting order in more games, giving Carroll a chance at pushing his RBI total over 100. A great foundation bat who could still outperform his ADP.