Fantasy Baseball: 3 Buy-Low Hitter Candidates

The 2025 MLB season is roughly one-third complete. Depending on the format, fantasy baseball seasons are closer to being finished.

With that in mind, some fantasy managers could be growing impatient with players still going through early-season slumps.

But what that could mean is quality players who are about to breakout being available for pennies on the dollar on the trade market.

Here are three potential buy-low hitter candidates entering Memorial Day weekend. Also, check out our sell-high hitter candidates.

Salvador Perez, Catcher, Kansas City Royals

Age appears to be finally catching up to the 35-year-old catcher. Through 48 games this season, he's slashing only .223/.258/.346, which gives him a career-low .603 OPS. Perez also has just three home runs. He hit 27 last season.

Perez's deeper numbers, though, suggest that he could be due for a much stronger final two-thirds of the season.

Perez has a higher hard-ht percentage and barrel rate than last season according to Fangraphs. In fact, the Royals catcher owns his highest barrel rate, which measures the amount of hits where a player meets the ball with the sweet spot of the bat, since 2021.

Unsurprisingly, Perez's hard hit percentage is also equal to his total last season.

Simply put, Perez may be simiply experiencing bad luck to begin 2025. He has a BABIP lower than his career norm and a putrid 4.8% HR/FB rate.

Fantasy managers could have expected some decline in Perez's power at his age, but not that sharp of a drop-off.

It's dangerous to count on catchers improving offensively during the dog days of summer. But Perez has proven to be so durable in his career that it's not as big of a concern with him, and his analytics indicate he could be due for a big second half.

Nick Castellanos, Outfielder, Philadelphia Phillies

Due to a stretch where he's gone 7-for-20 in the last five games, Castellanos has raised his season average to .286. That's higher than expected. He hasn't finished with a batting average that high since 2021.

But Castellanos only has 16 extra-base hits, including four homers. Last season, he had 57 extra-base hits, including 23 bombs.

Castellanos is still getting the ball in the air to begin this season, but his HR/FB rate is half of last season's 12.6% according to Fangraphs. In 2023, Castellano's HR/FB rate was 17.6%.

HR/FB rate is a better statistic to judge pitchers. A drop in the category for a hitter could be an indication of losing power. The Phillies outfielder is 33, so that's possible, but probably not at his current sharp decline.

Similar to Perez, Castellanos is matching his numbers from last season in barrel rate and hard hit percentage. Furthermore, he's pulling the ball more often, which generally helps power. Still, Castellanos isn't hitting bombs.

Trading for the outfielder has risk because his average could drop significantly over the final four months. But it's also a strong bet that his power increases. Castellanos has hit 23 home runs in three of his last four seasons.

Xander Bogaerts, Shortstop, San Diego Padres

Since Bogaerts last made the All-Star team in 2022, his offensive production has been in decline. Last season, he posted his fewest home runs in a full season since 2017 and his worst batting average in a decade.

Maybe the middle infielder is just in decline?

But Bogaerts is still hitting the ball hard. In fact, his 39.4% hard hit rate according to Statcast is his highest in the category since 2022. He's pulling the ball more frequently and hitting to the opposite field more often too (he's not using the middle of the field).

While he's striking out more, his BABIP is down from his career norm, which helps explain the lower batting average. Better luck in the final four months could lead to a better batting average.

Just like Castellanos, Bogaerts is hitting more flyballs, but his HR/FB rate has dropped dramatically. Again, maybe he's lost some power but likely not that much.

Bogaerts already has eight steals, so if all else fails, he can contribute some stolen bases. He is getting on-base more often this season because of a higher walk rate, which gives him the opportunity to swipe bags.

Managers should go ahead and see what it could take to pry Bogaerts away from his current fantasy teams.