Oddsmakers Weigh In Following Gerrit Cole Tommy John Surgery News: Fantasy Baseball Impact
While the Gerrit Cole season-ending injury news has Yankees’ and fantasy baseball managers bummed, sportsbooks around the country rushed to make adjustments in several widely popular betting markets.
New York’s odds to win the American League East rose from -105 to +140, while their odds to win the American League (+250) have only moderately been adjusted to +330 at DraftKings Sportsbook. The 27-time World Series champion franchise opening championship odds have increased from +800 to +900 in the wake of the Cole injury news.
The biggest reaction to the Yankees ace involves the club’s season win total. Based upon one of the top starting rotations consisting of Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, and Luis Gil, the Pinstripes opened with a season win total of 93.5 juiced to the over at odds of (-115). However, following the season-injury news, that projection has since been significantly sliced to 89.5 juiced to the under at odds of -130.
As expected, Cole’s injury news also made waves in AL Cy Young futures betting. While there was no direct impact at the very top, with reigning AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal remaining the favorite to repeat at odds of +300, bettors do find a move in the middle of the market.
Garrett Crochet struck out SEVEN batters across three scoreless innings of work 🐷 #SpringTraining pic.twitter.com/3mh6YkWyjl
— MLB (@MLB) March 5, 2025
Following Skubal, Boston's Garrett Crochet has garnered the most attention by bettors, dropping his opening odds of +650 down to +350. Rounding out the top five are Kansas City’s Cole Ragans (+1000), Seattle’s Logan Gilbert (+1200), and Texas’s Jacob deGrom (+1400).
Cole, who was slotted in as the sixth overall choice at odds of +1600, has now been replaced by the tandem of Minnesota’s Pablo Lopez (+1500) and Houston’s Framber Valdez (+1500), both of whom were installed with opening odds of +2500.
Gerritt Cole Injury Fantasy Baseball Impact
After getting lit up for six runs, five hits, and two home runs over 2.2 innings in spring training, the New York Yankees released a report that Cole had a sore right elbow. He missed over two months in 2024 with a similar injury that led to him falling to the 18th to 20th round in NFBC 15-team fantasy drafts.
With Cole ruled out for the entire season, fantasy baseball managers can fade the ace pitcher in 2025. Max Fried should become the new ace for the New York Yankees, but Will Warren should see a major uptick in value as he enters the Pinstripes’ rotation.
For fantasy owners looking to build a top-heavy pitching rotation who had their eye on Cole, pivot to starters like Garrett Crochet, Bryce Miller, Cole Ragans, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, or Corbin Burnes.
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-93d081519425a2ac5afbaba6a5df6de3.jpg "Matt Brandon")
Matt Brandon has worked in the Fantasy Sports / Sports Media industry for over a decade including stints at Scout Media, CBS Sports, Sports Illustrated, DrRoto.com, Fantasy SP, FullTime Fantasy, and more. Brandon produced Top-10 rankings in FantasyPros’ nationwide contest three years in a row. He has taken down a few big DFS tournaments on FanDuel and DraftKings but his bread and butter is season-long fantasy football, fantasy basketball, and sports betting. Brandon bleeds blue for his New York sports teams: the New York Giants, New York Knicks, New York Rangers, and New York Mets.
Frank Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Besides contributing NFL fantasy analysis with a Vegas slant, Frank Taddeo primarily performs as On SI’s Senior Fantasy Analyst, providing his significant experience and resources in the sports world.