Jordan Lawlar Fantasy Baseball Rollercoaster: From Breakout Buzz To Bench Risk

For the fantasy market desperately needing offensive help, Jordan Lawlar had a difference-maker profile this season at AAA. He hit .336 over 152 at-bats with 38 runs, six home runs, 31 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases. He walked 10.4% of the time with a league-average strikeout rate (22.5).

Arizona finally called him up on May 12th, but they only gave him two starts over eight games. Lawlar didn’t help his cause by striking out five times over eight at-bats, adding more weakness to his brief major league resume (4-for-39 with two runs, one steal, three walks, and 16 strikeouts).

No #Dbacks INF Jordan Lawlar tonight. He has 8 AB (2 GS) since being recalled May 12th.
— Arizona Diamondbacks | Stats & Info (@DbacksStatsInfo) May 19, 2025

Over the past week or so, the fantasy excitement went from high hopes with impact value to: is Lawlar worth holding onto in any format?

Last week in the high-stakes market, Lawlar crushed his potential fantasy value by his unexpected dull week, leading to a bench role and a possible ticket back to the minors. Last week, he was in the free-agent pool in 32 main events (15-team leagues with no trading). His high bid was $111 (which was mine) with a low investment of $3. Lawlar’s average winning bid was $48, with the runner-up swings coming in at $23.

Heading into last week’s free agent period, I had no interest in bidding on Lawlar due to my options at 2B, SS, and MI. After walking through the free-agent pool in my 12-team leagues, he was available in more leagues, leading me to think about his value in my deeper formats.

If Lawlar had a starting job with Arizona, he would offer an explosive five-category skill set, but there would be a learning curve. A few weeks ago, the high-stakes market shoved in many free agent dollars ($1,000 budget) on these two players:

There were 47 winning bids (High - $557/Low - $145) for Nick Kurtz. The average of the winners was $341 and $254 for the runner-ups.

There were 52 winning bids (High - $493/Low - $153) for Agustin Ramirez. The average of the winners was $263 and $211 for the runner-ups.

Based on this, Lawlar has the potential to reach a higher ceiling than both players in fantasy value, but the cloudiness of his opportunity lowered his bids. Therefore, I looked at my team (2B Maikel Garcia, SS Trea Turner, and SS Bo Bichette) and didn’t see the need for an upgrade, which probably should have led to me only making a token bid on Lawlar.

At DH, I had Christian Encarnacion-Strand slotted as a power edge, but he landed on the injured list. I quickly overpaid for Noelvi Marte ($129 to $38), as many times, the best fantasy replacement is the guy earning the bump in at-bats. Marte was a short-term win, but a roster crunch led to me dropping him. I thought Encarnacion-Strand may beat him back to the Reds while also understanding that both players could potentially still earn starting playing time due to Jeimer Candelario also being on the injured list.

As a result, I decided that Lawlar has the most potential long-term value to my team, and his investment price would be much lower than what it would have been with a starting job. I bid to win, even with only $337 of my $1,000 free agent budget remaining over the subsequent 18 waiver periods.

When finishing off the backend of some fantasy rosters, impact, difference-maker players are needed to move up the standings. In other cases, the front structure of a fantasy roster is much stronger, requiring only at-bats with a slant to power or speed based on team strength in those categories.

In the real baseball world, a lot can change in a week. Lawlar is the right kind of fantasy investment, but only time will tell if he pays off. In deep formats, the free agent pool is weak at almost all positions, forcing fantasy managers to look ahead for winning help on the waiver wire.

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