Josh Hader Headlines Fantasy Baseball Closers to Avoid at Current ADP
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In fantasy baseball, drafting the right closers can make or break a season. While some relievers look like surefire stars on paper, their current ADP suggests they may be overvalued.
Leading the pack is Josh Hader of the Houston Astros, joined by two other high-profile closers who fantasy managers might want to approach with caution.
All rankings and projections are based on the in-depth research from Shawn Childs on Substack, one of the most trusted and detailed sources for fantasy baseball analysis today.
Understanding why these elite arms could underperform relative to their draft cost is key to building a smarter bullpen strategy. Let's dive in.
Houston Astros CP Josh Hader: Rank 9, ADP 50
Though Josh Hader delivered solid counting stats in 2025, posting a 2.05 ERA with 28 saves and 76 strikeouts in 52.2 innings, his profile still comes with a risk that could leave fantasy managers overpaying.
While those elite ratios and save totals look impressive on the surface, relievers inherently carry volatility, and Hader’s heavy workload and recent injury history, including a left shoulder issue that sidelined him late in the 2025 season, add uncertainty to his reliability and innings availability.
Additionally, a dominant year in a limited innings sample isn’t always repeatable, especially given how volatile closer roles can be from year to year.
Relying too heavily on one year of success, even with strong peripherals, can inflate his draft price beyond what his actual 2026 production warrants, particularly when other late‑inning arms offer similar save ceilings with lower risk.
Boston Red Sox CP Aroldis Chapman: Rank 7, ADP 45
Despite a career‑resurgent 2025 season where Chapman posted a minuscule 1.17 ERA, a 0.70 WHIP, and notched 32 saves while striking out 85 batters in 61.1 innings, his fantasy stock may still be inflated heading into 2026.
Those numbers earned him significant buzz and a high draft price, often coming off the board as one of the top relief pitchers early in drafts. But several factors argue for caution: the volatile nature of relievers, small sample regression risk, and his age entering his age 38 season make sustaining such elite ratios unlikely.
Historically, Chapman’s results fluctuated more widely before 2025, and the dependency on a narrower innings pool means a few blown saves or lost opportunities could drastically dent his value relative to cost.
Paying a premium based on one standout year, especially for a reliever, can leave managers overpaying compared to more stable late‑innings options.
New York Mets CP Devin Williams: Rank 8, ADP 50
Despite his reputation as one of the league’s more dynamic relievers, Williams’ 2025 numbers raise red flags for fantasy managers. He finished the season with a 4.79 ERA, 18 saves, and 90 strikeouts over 62 innings, solid counting stats but well below the elite ratios expected from a top-tier closer.
His elevated ERA suggests vulnerability that could lead to blown saves or lost opportunities, particularly in tighter leagues, and his WHIP and peripherals don’t scream lockdown late‑inning dominance either.
On top of that, coming off a down year and moving into a new bullpen situation with the Mets adds uncertainty to his role and consistency.
Overvaluing him in drafts based on past accolades or strikeout potential alone risks paying a premium for a reliever whose recent results point to regression rather than sustained elite production.
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Ryan Shea is a seasoned sports enthusiast with a sharp eye for strategy and a deep love for the game—no matter the sport. Whether he’s analyzing roster moves or spotting trends before they hit the headlines, Ryan brings a unique mix of research, instinct, and insider perspective to his writing. With over a decade of experience dominating fantasy leagues, he knows what it takes to build championship-caliber lineups. A diehard fan of all things New York, Ryan proudly reps the Jets, Yankees, Knicks, and Rangers—win or lose.