Juan Soto 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook: Can the Stolen Base Surge Continue?

Juan Soto’s rare blend of power, plate discipline, and unexpected speed keeps him firmly in the elite fantasy tier entering 2026.

New York Mets right fielder Juan Soto (22) runs toward third base against the Miami Marlins during the third inning at loanDepot Park. | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Juan Soto’s move to the Mets unlocked the most surprising season of his career, as elite power and patience were suddenly paired with game-changing speed. Heading into 2026, Soto remains a first-round fantasy cornerstone—even if some of last year’s stolen-base magic proves difficult to repeat.

OF2 – Juan Soto, New York Mets (NFBC ADP – 4)

If I told you Soto was going to lead the National League in any category, stolen bases would be at the bottom of the list. He finished with a league-high 38 steals last season, with a surprising success rate (90.5%). His home run total (43) was also a career-high while improving in back-to-back years. He has a string of three consecutive seasons with over 100 RBIs (109, 109, and 105). Soto finished third in FPGscore (11.06), up from sixth in 2024 (8.95).

His quest for more power has led to a rise in his strikeout rate (19.2%), an eight-year high, but it remains better than the league average. He has had an impressive walk rate (17.8%) in every season in the majors. Soto finished with a five-year high in his average hit rate (1.993), with a reasonable floor in his contact batting average (.345).

Players to have 100+ Walks and 25+ Stolen Bases last season:

- Juan Soto

end of list. pic.twitter.com/b7IC8qBkce

— SleeperMLB (@SleeperMLB) February 9, 2026

His hard-hit rate (55.1%) has been at the top of the career range over the past three years. Soto has strength in his exit velocity (93.8) and his barrel rate (18.1%). His next step in his power stroke is upping his career-best launch angle (12.0) and flyball rate (38.6%). He also has a rising HR/FB rate (25.1%).

His batting average had more risk on the road (.240/29/11/39/11 over 208 at-bats). Soto was at his best in June (.322/25/11/20/2 over 90 at-bats), while finishing the year on the uptick over his last 198 at-bats (.293/45/18/43/23 over 198 at-bats).

Juan Soto 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: Last season, 27.3% of Soto’s Roto fantasy value came from the stolen base category, which doesn’t look repeatable based on his career base and the recent pattern of top base runners from 2024 to 2025. When he came into the league, Soto had the approach to lead the league in batting average (league-high in 2020 – .351), but that thought process hasn’t been less relevant since 2021 (BA – .313).

Soto has been in the majors for eight seasons, and he is just reaching his prime. His ceiling still hasn’t been approached, but he no longer has the protection of Pete Alonso behind him in the batting lineup. I see a pullback to about 110 runs, 35 home runs, 100 RBIs, and 20 steals, while regaining some of his stride in batting average. If given a choice, I would select Bobby Witt over him due to his position eligibility.