MLB Mock Trade: Houston Astros Acquire Trevor Rogers From Baltimore Orioles

Trevor Rogers' recent resurgence has made him a potential trade chip for the Orioles, with the Astros emerging as a logical landing spot ahead of the MLB Trade Deadline.

Baltimore Orioles pitcher Trevor Rogers (28) throws during the fourth inning against the Miami Marlins at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. | Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

In the wonderful world of fantasy sports, catching a player on a career season can be the key to the difference between winning and losing a league title. The fallout of chasing previous season stats can be devastating if that player doesn’t have follow-through in his growth.

Exploring A Trevor Rogers Trade

In 2021, in his second season with Miami, Trevor Rogers posted winning stats over 25 starts (7-8 with a 2.55 ERA, 1.150 WHIP, and 157 strikeouts over 133.0 innings). Over his next 52 starts from 2022 to 2024, he crushed any fantasy supporter's dreams with most of his trips to the mound. He went 7-24 with a 5.09 ERA, 1.520 WHIP, and 222 strikeouts over 249.1 innings. His regression was tied to weaker command (3.9 walks per nine innings) and a sharp decline in strikeouts (8.0 per nine innings). 

Rogers made 11 starts in the minors after his outstanding season. Batters only had 45 hits over 53.2 innings while showcasing an elite strikeout rate (11.2) and fewer walks (2.2 per nine). Unfortunately, six home runs allowed led to more weakness in his ERA (4.86) than WHIP (1.08).

His fastball velocity has been much lower over the past three seasons (93.5, 91.7, and 92.9 mph) compared to his breakout year in 2021 (94.6 mph). Rogers began featuring a sinker more in 2023 while continuing to throw his changeup as his second-highest usage pitch. He also mixes in a slider.

Trevor Rogers' turnaround has been nothing short of miraculous

2022: 5.47 ERA, 0.9 fWAR
2023: 4.00 ERA, 0.3 fWAR
2024: 4.92 ERA, 0.9 fWAR
2025: 1.49 ERA, 1.4 fWAR

Unreal. pic.twitter.com/sMhLC5ZoeY

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) July 27, 2025

Rogers opened this season with a right kneecap injury that led to him beginning 2025 in the minors. He struggled over five starts between AA and AAA (0-2 with 14 runs, 20 hits, three home runs, seven walks, and 18 strikeouts), but Baltimore still gave him a spot start on May 24th (no runs over 6.1 innings with two hits, no walks, and five strikeouts). 

Despite his success, the Orioles shipped him back to AAA. By pitching once in the majors, he became available in the free agent pool in the high-stakes market. A friend of mine, who has been chasing Trevor Rogers' failed stats for a couple of years, picked him up after his stellar performance. His partner in a high-dollar league forced him to drop him after his trip back to the minors (3.31 ERA, 1.469 WHIP, and 11 strikeouts over 16.1 innings) while also forbidding him from re-adding him a couple of weeks later.

After a dull game (three runs, eight baserunners, and four strikeouts over 2.1 innings) back in Baltimore, Rogers has been a stud over his last six starts (4-11 with a 1.71 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, .156 BAA, and 35 strikeouts over 42.0 innings). As a result, the Orioles gain a tradeable commodity. Here’s a look at Rogers’ pitch mix over this span on Brooks Baseball:

Baltimore is paying Rogers $2.6 million this year. He has his last arbitration year coming in the offseason. His direction makes him an attractive trade over the next couple of days for an MLB team in playoff contention.

Houston Astros - Baltimore Orioles MLB Mock Trade

Houston Astros Receive

Trevor Rogers

Baltimore Orioles Receive

Miguel Ullola

Ethan Pecko

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The Houston Astros continue to have injuries to the backend of their starting rotation, while looking poised to make a deep playoff run if their two aces (Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown) carry their success in the postseason. The Astros also have a top-ranking bullpen (22-14 with a 3.41 ERA, 428 strikeouts, and 33 saves over 369.1 innings).

I propose that the Orioles acquire Miguel Ullola and Ethan Pecko from Houston for Trevor Rogers. 

Ullola has made 18 starts at AAA this season, leading to a 3.56 ERA and 96 strikeouts over 73.1 innings while walking 55 batters (1.46 WHIP). Over his previous 77 games in the minors, he went 10-20 with a 4.53 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 411 strikeouts over 296.0 innings. Ullola offers a mid-90s fastball with plenty of swing-and-miss, but he can’t reach a higher ceiling without throwing more strikes.

Pecko has been trending higher over his last five appearances in the minors (1.82 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 26 strikeouts over 24.2 innings), but his ERA (4.50) remains a liability at AA over 42.0 innings this season. Over his first two seasons in the minors, between starting and relief, he posted a 3.90 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 143 strikeouts over 113.0 innings. Pecko’s low 90s fastball is supported by depth in his secondary pitches.

In 5 starts this July with @cchooks, Ethan Pecko has a 1.82 ERA with 26 strikeouts in 24.2 innings pitched.

Last night, he tossed 5.0 scoreless innings and recorded 6 strikeouts. pic.twitter.com/xsyeQgNKFx

— Astros Player Development (@AstrosPlayerDev) July 25, 2025

The Astros will have Spencer Arrighetti and Luis Garcia back, hopefully by September, and Cristian Javier (he’s struggled in his three rehab starts – four runs, 13 baserunners, and six strikeouts over seven innings) is under contract for another two years after this season. In addition, Lance McCullers is lingering on the injured list with a finger issue.

Houston's major league starting pitching depth, albeit not healthy, allows them to move some minor league arms to add Rogers.