Pete Alonso’s New Team, Same Power: 2026 Fantasy Baseball Draft Analysis

Pete Alonso’s 2025 rebound vaulted him back into the fantasy elite, but his move to Baltimore adds new risk to his 2026 draft profile.

Former New York Mets player Pete Alonso (20) hits an RBI double in the third inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park. | Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Pete Alonso reminded fantasy managers in 2025 why elite power and RBI production still matter, delivering one of the most complete seasons of his career. As he heads into 2026 with a new team and a rising ADP, the question isn’t whether the power is real—it’s whether the price still makes sense.

1B3 – Pete Alonzo, Baltimore Orioles (NFBC ADP – 27)

Last high-stakes draft season, Alonso was my target in the third round due to his high ceiling in power and RBIs. I also respected his approach enough to think a correction in batting average was coming. He delivered on my expectations, leading to a career high in batting average (.272) with 87 runs, 38 home runs, and 126 RBIs over 624 at-bats. He finished 18th in FPGscore for hitters (5.74).

In the fantasy market, I live on an island writing about RBI chances and RBI rate. Last year, Alonso came to the plate with 502 runners on base, helped by hitting behind Juan Soto. I wrote this about him last year before resigning with the Mets in early February:

Alonso has had a high floor in RBI chances over the past four seasons (440, 499, 440, and 437), and it could fall at the high end of that range by hitting behind Juan Soto (on base 299 times last season) if he resigns with the Mets.

More importantly, Alonso regained his clutch ability at the plate, highlighted by his RBI rate (17.9% in 2025, up from 12.6% in 2024 and 15.8% in his career). Soto was on base 284 times in 2025. His average hit rate (1.924) aligned with his career path. He set a five-year high in contact batting average (.368 – .335 in 2024 and .295 in 2023) while leading the National League in doubles (41).

His strikeout rate (22.9%) almost matched his career average (22.8%), but Alonso took fewer walks (8.6%). He struggled against lefties (.227/19/9/23/1 over 181 at-bats), with less value on the road (.242/42/18/55/1 over 318 at-bats). Alonso delivered 30 home runs and 95 RBIs in April, June, August, and September.

His swing path remains flyball-favoring (41.8%), supported by his launch angle (15.3 – 15.9 in his career). Alonso finished with a career-best in exit velocity (93.5 – about 89.7 over his previous three seasons) and hard-hit rate (54.4% - 45.8% in his career). He also set a new top in his barrel rate (18.9% - 14.9% in his career).

Pete Alonso 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Fantasy Outlook: The Baltimore Orioles signed Alonso for $155 million for five seasons in early December. Baltimore has developing offensive talent at second base (Jackson Holliday) and shortstop (Gunnar Henderson), giving the Orioles two players who should get on base at least 425 times this year. I expect a pullback in RBI chances for Alonso unless Adley Rutschman regains his 2023 form at the plate.

Orioles, 1B Pete Alonso reportedly agree to 5-year deal, per multiple reports including MLB's @Feinsand. pic.twitter.com/joQjttQhXG

— MLB (@MLB) December 10, 2025

Last season, Baltimore ranked 24th in runs scored (677). Alonso will certainly upgrade the Orioles’ offense, but I sense a regression in batting average and RBIs. I’ll set the bar at .250 with 90 runs, 35 home runs, and 100 RBIs. I prefer him as a third player in my team builds, which means Alonso is overpriced for me in the 2026 draft season.