Tarik Skubal’s Case as Fantasy Baseball’s Best Pitcher in 2026: Stats & Projections

Tarik Skubal enters the season as the clear SP1, bringing elite ERA, WHIP, and strikeout upside that makes him worth a top-10 fantasy pick.

Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) celebrates at the end of the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. | David Richard-Imagn Images

Tarik Skubal has cemented himself as one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball, pairing elite velocity with surgical command and bat-missing secondaries. As fantasy managers weigh whether to spend a top-10 pick on an ace, Skubal’s profile offers both a high floor and Cy Young–level upside.

SP1 – Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (NFBC ADP – 7)

Over his last 77 starts, Skubal went 38-13 with a 2.39 ERA, 0.904 WHIP, and 571 strikeouts, leading to two Cy Young awards. Despite being the winning pitcher in the AL in 2025, he finished second in FPGscore (9.96), just behind Garrett Crochet (10.35). His edge in ERA (2.21), WHIP (0.891), and strikeouts (228) was a significant advantage to fantasy pitching staffs.

Skubal pitched at his highest level over his first 18 starts (10-2 with a 2.20 ERA, 0.810 WHIP, and 148 strikeouts over 116.0 innings). Wins become an issue over his final 13 games (3-4 with a 2.50 ERA, 1.008 WHIP, and 93 strikeouts over 79.1 innings). His first-pitch strikeout rate (71.3%) is elite, highlighted by his ever-improving walk rate (1.5 per nine).

His average fastball (97.5 mph) was the best of his career. Skubal dominated with his four-seamer (.175 BAA – 88 strikeouts) and changeup (.159 BAA – 128 strikeouts) while also having success with a low-volume slider (.212 BAA) and a show-me curveball (.154 BAA). His only liability was his sinker (.273 BAA).

Tarik Skubal won arbitration. He will make $32 million next year👀 pic.twitter.com/80fNj7uwZa

— SleeperTigers (@SleeperTigers) February 5, 2026

Tarik Skubal 2026 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Skubal is set to be a free agent in 2027, and Detroit most likely won’t be his home after this season. Detroit improved offensively last year (11th in runs – 758 ~ 76 more than 2024). He brings an elite foundation pitching skill set that will come at a price this year. At this point, Skubal has a Clayton Kershaw-in-his-prime feel, minus the heavy workload. He should have a rebound in wins, with repeated results in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts.