NBA Finals, Game 1: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Key Stat Projections

Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander add some NBA Finals hardware to his increasingly crowded trophy case? | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

The 2024-25 Oklahoma City Thunder are a team.

On any given night, any one of their five starters—even Canada’s own Lu Dort or Big Ike Hartenstein—can play a major role in taking down an opponent.

And with defensive wiz Alex Caruso and twin microwaves Cason Wallace and Isiah Joe coming off the bench, the Thunder’s second unit can compete with a few starting units—units that, out of kindness and respect, we won’t cite. But they know who they are.

So the OKC locker room is loaded with beasts—let’s not forget about Chet Holmgren and Jaylin Williams—but as was the case with the New York Yankees' version of Reggie Jackson, MVP guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the straw that stirs the drink.

SGA: Scoreboard Melter?

On Thursday, Gilgeous-Alexander will play in his first NBA Finals game, but considering how he performed during OKC’s playoff run (29.9 PPG, 6.9 APG, 5.7 RPG), don’t expect to see any nerves.

But what can we expect to see in the box score?

We dusted off our abacus and determined which factors might (somewhat) help (somewhat) accurately determine how SGA’s averages might shake out in a seven-game series against the Thunder’s Finals opponent, the Indiana Pacers, those factors being:

• 2025 NBA Playoff statistics

• 2025 statistics vs. Indiana

• 2025 statistics at home vs. road splits

• 2025 statistics after three days of rest

• 2025 statistics after two days of rest

We weighted them in the above order, and here’s what the algorithms came up with:

• Points: 31.0

• Assists: 7.0

• Rebounds: 5.5

• Steals: 1.8

• Blocks: 1.0

• FG%: 49%

• FT: 88%

For context, these numbers compare somewhat favorably to LeBron James’ stats from the 2016 Finals, considered by many to be among the finest individual Finals performance in league history.

• SGA will have outscored LeBron by 1.3 points, and posted a far better FT% (88% vs. 78.1).

• Bron whupped SGA in the remainder of the above categories, with Gilgeous-Alexander coming close only in assists, to the tune of 7.0 vs James’ 8.9.

Can these numbers lift the Thunder over the feisty Pacers? Welp, for the most part, they’re a slight improvement on SGA’s regular season digits, and said regular season digits won his team 68 games and him an MVP award.

So do with that information what you will.