NBA Finals Projections: Will Indiana Pacers Star Tyrese Haliburton Melt the Box Score?
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Statistical predictions are fun!
Yeah, we know, they’re hardly ever right, but it’s always a nice way to pass the time in between the actual games.
We’re all super-antsy for the NBA Finals to tip, so it’s crucial—crucial, we tells ya—that we find a way to fill our spare basketball time.
So let’s get projecting.
Ty One On
Heading into the Oklahoma City Thunder/Indiana Pacers NBA Finals, even casual hoops watchers would agree that Indy’s near-superstar Tyrese Haliburton is the logical choice to dominate his squad's offensive side of the stat sheet. After all, in the 2025 postseason, the All-Star guard leads the Eastern Conference champs in points (21.1), assists (9.8), and—surprise, surprise—defensive rebounds (5.8).
But just how much dominating will he do?
We dusted off our abacus to help us determine which factors might (somewhat) help (somewhat) accurately determine how Haliburton’s averages could shake out in a seven-game series against the Thunder, those factors being:
- 2025 NBA Playoff statistics
- 2025 statistics vs. OKC
- 2025 statistics at home vs. road splits
- 2025 statistics after three days of rest
- 2025 statistics after two days of rest
We weighted them in the above order, and here’s what we came up with:
- Points: 18.8
- Assists: 9.8
- Rebounds: 3.5
- Steals: 1.4
- Field Goal %: 47.3%
- Three-Point %: 39.0%
- Free Throw %: 85.0%
Interestingly, those numbers are almost identical to his 2024-25 regular season digits:
- Points: +0.2
- Assists: +0.6
- Rebounds: ±0.0
- Steals: ±0.0
- Field Goal %: ±0.0%
- Three-Point %: +0.2%
- Free Throw %:-0.1%
If the above comes to fruition, will it be enough help Indy upset the Thunder and win the Pacers the franchise’s first-ever ‘chip?
Well, it was good enough to get Indiana to to the Big Dance, so anything’s possible.
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-82121a1351894b8089c555f4b4b69420-1d609352940036e7455770363a74a2e9.png "Alan Goldsher")
Alan Goldsher has written about sports for Sports Illustrated, ESPN, Apple, Playboy, NFL.com, and NBA.com, and he’s the creator of the Chicago Sports Stuff Substack. He’s the bestselling author of 15 books, and the founder/CEO of Gold Note Records. Alan lives in Chicago, where he writes, makes music, and consumes and creates way too much Bears content. You can visit him at http://www.AlanGoldsher.com and http://x.com/AlanGoldsher.