2025 Fantasy Baseball: Corbin Burnes Profile, Preview, Predictions
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The Diamondback signed Burnes to a six-year deal in late December for $210 million. He adds stability to the front end of their pitching staff, and their fans hope to stay in the playoff hunt again in 2025.
Corbin Burnes, Filthy 84mph Sweeper. 😷 pic.twitter.com/IPuSJw3Lv3
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 1, 2024
SP – Corbin Burnes, ARZ (ADP – 40.0)
Burnes was electric over 73 games (27-14 with a 2.62 ERA, 0.964 WHIP, and 565 strikeouts over 428.2 innings) from 2020 to 2022. Over this span, he led the National League in ERA (2.43 in 2021) and strikeouts (243 in 2022).
Over the past three seasons, his strikeout rate has declined (2021 – 12.6 per nine, 2022 – 10.8, 2023 – 9.3, and 2024 – 8.4), but his arm still held value in ERA (3.08) and WHIP (1.042). Heading into this year, I made a mental note of pitchers I wanted to avoid (any arm showing a decline of more than one strikeout per inning from the previous year), even if coming off a successful season. My thoughts were tied to the direction of the recent failures of these arms (Walker Buehler in 2022, Cristian Javier in 2023, and Shane Bieber in 2024).
Last year, Burnes had a career-high in wins (15), with an ERA under 3.00 for the fourth time. Batters hit .229 against him (a five-year high). Burnes only struggled in August (7.36 ERA and 1.597 WHIP over 25.2 innings). Home runs (14 over 91.2 innings) were an issue over the summer.
He features a cutter (.250 BAA) as his top usage pitch (45.4%). Burnes threw his slider (.172 BAA) at his highest rate (14.4) since 2019 while tossing a few more curveballs (.204 BAA). Batters hit .194 vs. his changeup and .250 off his seldom-used sinker (.250 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: The Diamondbacks signed Burnes to a six-year $210 million contract in late December. He appears to be a discounted ace compared to his price over the previous few seasons. I sense an injury coming, putting Burnes in my avoid column. I can’t predict when a player will get hurt, so he may help while on the mound.
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Paul Skenes Profile, Preview, Predictions
With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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