2025 Fantasy Baseball: Dylan Cease Profile, Preview, Predictions

Dylan Cease's ERA has been challenging to time over the past seasons due to his battles with walks. He showed command growth in 2024 while maintaining a high level of strikeouts.

Dylan Cease, Wicked 89mph Slider. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/A9OVeX82qx
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 18, 2024

SP – Dylan Cease, SD (ADP – 48.0)

2025 Dylan Cease Pitching Stats Profile | Shawn Childs

After leading the American League in free passes in 2020 (34) and 2022 (78), with a walk rate (4.0) over his first five seasons with the White Sox, Cease had a WHIP risk profile (1.305). He overcame this issue in 2022 (1.109) due to batters hitting .190 against him (career-low). Early in his career, his wildness was also highlighted in 2021 (nine hit batters and 13 wild pitches) and 2023 (nine hit batters and 14 wild pitches).

In his first year with the Padres, Cease posted the lowest walk rate (3.1) of his career, but his strikeouts per nine (10.6) regressed for the third consecutive season. Typically, a top pitcher shaving off 15 walks over 180.0 should see him double that outcome in strikeouts (30). He hasn't missed his turn in the rotation in five seasons while leading the league in starts in 2021 (32), 2023 (33), and 2024 (33).

Cease gave up five runs or more in four outings last season, leading to 22 runs, 41 baserunners, and seven home runs over 17.1 innings. Three of these disaster starts came from May 20th to July 2nd (6.32 ERA, 1.511 WHIP, 10 home runs over 47.0 innings). Over his final 15 games, he went 7-4 with a 2.58 ERA, 1,007 WHIP, and 94 strikeouts over 87.1 innings. Cease was even more electric over his first nine starts (2.45 ERA, 0.782 WHIP, and 68 strikeouts over 55.0 innings).

His command was better at home (2.4 walks per nine – 3.7 on the road). Righties (.189 BAA) and lefties (.212) batters struggled to make winning contact. Cease continues to have a plus four-seam fastball (96.9 mph – .244 BAA), but he threw his slider (.164 BAA with 146 strikeouts over 372 at-bats) as his top usage pitch (47.6%) in 2024. Over the past two years, he mixed in a low-volume split-finger fastball and a show-me cutter to lefties.

Fantasy Outlook: Cease will be a free agent in 2026, motivating him to be even better this year. Despite his ability to take the mound every fifth day over the last five seasons, his heavy reliance on his slider invites an elbow injury in the future. The direction of his arm should be up with repeated command while also allowing him to pitch deeper in games. Within a nine-iron of a sub-3.00 ERA and 250+ strikeouts, but any regression in his walks will lead to more down days and a liability in WHIP. Cease ranked fifth by FPGscore (4.98) for starting pitchers in 2024.

SP – Dylan Cease, SD (ADP – 48.0)

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