2025 Fantasy Baseball: George Kirby Profile, Preview, Predictions
In this story:
Kirby brings excellent command to fantasy teams, leading to a winning WHIP. On the downside, his expected jump in strikeouts didn't arrive last season. Kirby will reach elite ace status once he puts more batters away with swings and misses.
George Kirby, Nasty 88mph Slider. 😨 pic.twitter.com/L8KbqSWyLV
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 24, 2024
SP – George Kirby, SEA (ADP – 45.0)
The ace arrival didn’t come in 2024 for Kirby. He continued to be a strike-throwing machine, highlighted by his league-leading walk rate over the past two seasons (2023 – 0.9 and 2024 – 1.1). Surprisingly, he led the American League in hits allowed (181) last season while failing to find a winning put-away pitch (8.4 strikeouts per nine). Kirby ranked 15th for starting pitchers in FPGscore (3.21), compared to ninth (4.21) in 2023.
Last year, he struggled more with left-handed batters (.258 over 334 at-bats with 12 home runs). Kirby hurt fantasy teams in ERA in April (4.18), May (4.00), and August (6.84) due to six disastrous starts (34 runs, 53 baserunners, and 11 home runs over 29 innings). He allowed two or more home runs in eight games, six of which were on the road (17 total away from home).
His average fastball (96.2) matched his 2023 season. Kirby featured his split-finger fastball (.247 BAA with 20 strikeouts) more last year while lowering the usage of his four-seamer (34.4% - .227 BAA). His slider (.218 BAA) was his best pitch while not gaining an edge with his curveball (.333 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook: The attraction to Kirby is his command, leading to a winning WHIP and depth in games, creating more chances at wins. He relies on his four-seamer to put away batters, but his secondary stuff isn’t good enough to expand the strike zone and get more swings and misses. Kirby made 64 starts over the past two seasons while winning 42.1% of those chances. At this point of his career, he isn’t a foundation ace, but his arm will come fast once his strikeout rate approaches 10.0 per nine innings (10.7 over 117.1 innings in the minors). I love his price point this year, even if he doesn’t reach ace status. His first hurdle in 2025 is cleaning up the home run damage on the road.
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With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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