2026 Fantasy Baseball Comeback Player: ADP Riser 2B Matt McLain

After missing all of 2024 with left shoulder surgery and an August rib cage injury, Matt McLain was expected to be a value option at second base last season due to his power/speed potential. His bat flashed in 2023 over 365 at-bats (.290/65/16/50/14), driven by an elite contact batting average (.424), but masked by a high strikeout rate (28.5%).

2B Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds (NFBC ADP – 198)

Making contact (28.9% strikeout rate) remained an issue last season. McLain couldn’t overcome this shortfall due to a sharp decline in his contact batting average (.327). His average hit rate (1.563) came in well below 2023 (1.745) and his minor league career (1.915), with his latter two outcomes painting him as a future 30-home-run hitter with 550 at-bats. McLain also pressed with runners on base (RBI rate – 10.1% - 16.1% in 2023).

Over his first 65 games last season, McLain was only hitting .197 with 32 runs, eight home runs, 26 RBIs, and 11 steals while whiffing 75 times (28.7%). His batting average rebounded to .265 over his next 219 at-bats, leading to 35 runs, six home runs, 20 RBIs, and five steals. He lowered his strikeout rate to 25.4% over this span. McLain went 9-for-63 over his final 20 games with six runs, one home run, four RBIs, and two steals, with pitchers punching him out 29 times (42.6%).

His exit velocity (88.8) was below 2023 (89.3), with a weaker barrel rate (7.7%) and hard-hit rate (40.6%). McLain had a flyball swing path (44.2%) and supported his launch angle (16.3). His decline in power was showcased by a lower HR/FB rate (9.9% - 17.4% in 2023).

HOME RUN DO MATT MCLAIN pic.twitter.com/rwjQYHZtJi
— Reds Depressivo (@Redsdepressivo) March 5, 2026

McLain hit .193 on the road with 28 runs, five home runs, 18 RBIs, and five steals over 195 at-bats. His walk rate (9.5%) was a new career high.

Fantasy Outlook: A year removed from shoulder surgery should help McLain regain some of his lost power, and he has worked on getting stronger over the winter (12 lbs. of muscle per a mid-January report). Unfortunately, strength won’t help him make better contact. In his minor league career, his strikeout rate (24.8%) wasn’t as much of a liability.

This draft season, McLain has a much more favorable price point, but there are more questions about his direction and ceiling. He brings a first-round pedigree (2021), and his combined AAA and major league stats (.305/95/28/90/28 over 509 at-bats) in 2023 painted a difference-maker talent. His strikeout rate (26.1%) over this span was still below that of the best hitters in the game.

McLain has flashed more power in spring training with better contact, resulting in him climbing about 30 picks up draft boards in early March. My starting point is .247 with 85 runs, 22 home runs, 75 RBIs, and 22 steals over 538 at-bats, while understanding his ceiling could be much higher with better contact and a rebound in his power stroke. I view him as an excellent cheat at second base this year, but he won’t fit all team builds.