2026 Fantasy Baseball Deep Breakout Player: Connelly Early

Over his first two appearances in spring training, Connelly Early allowed two runs and four baserunners over 4.2 innings with four strikeouts. The Red Sox expected to start him out at AAA to open 2026.

SP Connelly Early, Boston Red Sox | Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

The Red Sox selected Early in the fifth round of the 2023 MLB June Amateur Draft after success over three years in college (23-9 with 3.01 ERA, 1.209 WHIP, and 227 strikeouts over 209.1 innings). His growth in 2023 at Virginia (12-3 with a 3.09 ERA, 1.202 WHIP, and 100 strikeouts over 87.1 innings) was led by a much lower walk rate (2.4) and more zip on his fastball.

Connelly Early, Boston Red Sox (NFBC ADP – 223)

2026 Connelly Early Pitching Stats | Shawn Childs

The Red Sox selected Early in the fifth round of the 2023 MLB June Amateur Draft after success over three years in college (23-9 with 3.01 ERA, 1.209 WHIP, and 227 strikeouts over 209.1 innings). His growth in 2023 at Virginia (12-3 with a 3.09 ERA, 1.202 WHIP, and 100 strikeouts over 87.1 innings) was led by a much lower walk rate (2.4) and more zip on his fastball.

Over the past two seasons, between High A and AAA, Early went 13-12 with a 3.31 ERA, 1.147 WHIP, and 270 strikeouts over 204.0 innings. He reached elite status in 2025 in the minors (10-3 with a 2.60 ERA, 1.106 WHIP, and 132 strikeouts over 100.1 innings). His walk rate (3.5) in the minors still needs work, but Early upped his strikeout rate (12.0).

Boston gave him four starts in September, leading to a 2.33 ERA, 1.086 WHIP, and 29 strikeouts over 19.1 innings. The Yankees banged him around in the playoffs (three runs, seven baserunners, and six strikeouts over 3.2 innings).

Connelly Early, K'ing the Side in the 2nd. pic.twitter.com/1v1mu5q1tx

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 10, 2025

His average fastball (93.8 mph) was about league average. Early featured a five-pitch arsenal – four-seamer (.189 BAA), slider (.290 BAA), changeup (.194 BAA), curveball (.185 BAA), and sinker (.235 BAA). His pitching success stats weren’t from all his games last year between the minors and majors.

Fantasy Outlook: Boston gave Early 123.1 innings of work last year, putting him on track to pitch 150.0 innings in 2026 if needed. The Red Sox have about six starting options for two rotation spots, heading into spring training. His ceiling looks higher than scouts believed coming into last year, thanks to his increased velocity on his fastball and his elite changeup.

The cloudiness of his starting opportunity suggests that Early is priced too high in early February. I like his arm and ceiling, but I would prefer to buy him at a discount. His spring training news will be the key to the price point in fantasy drafts.