2026 Fantasy On SI Top 10 Projected Starting Pitchers Ranked by FPGscore

Each year, game managers select players in a certain order, but they never finish the year with the same outcomes in fantasy value. After researching 120 starting pitchers, here are how the top 10 pitchers ranked by my FPGscore, with my projections:

1 - Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

Fantasy Outlook: Skenes won’t be a free agent until 2030, and I doubt the Pirates will pay him an elite ace salary. Based on this, Pittsburgh should ride him as much as possible over the next four years. He is a beast of a man who brings a workhorse profile on the mound. Many fantasy teams will shy away from him due to concerns about wins. Only 11 pitchers had 14 wins or more in 2025, seven of whom had an ERA over 3.00, and six pitchers had a WHIP of 1.10 or higher. So what is the value of a win?

The key stat for Skenes to approach 250+ strikeouts is his first-pitch strike rate (60.8%). If he throws 67% first-pitch strikes or more, he’ll make a run at 300 or more Ks. I’m shoving on him whenever possible because I see his edge and ceiling. His next challenge is catching Tarik Skubal in WHIP.

Projections: 15-7 with a 2.24 ERA, 0.931 WHIP, and 256 strikeouts over 195.1 innings

2 - Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

Fantasy Outlook: Skubal is set to be a free agent in 2027, and Detroit most likely won’t be his home after this season. Detroit improved offensively last year (11th in runs – 758 ~ 76 more than 2024). He brings an elite foundation pitching skill set that will come at a price this year. At this point, Skubal has a Clayton Kershaw-in-his-prime feel, minus the heavy workload. He should have a rebound in wins, with repeated results in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts.

Projections: 16-5 with a 2.47 ERA, 0.904 WHIP, and 244 strikeouts over 201.2 innings

3 - Chris Sale Atlanta Braves

Fantasy Outlook: Sale will turn 37 in late March, but his success with the Braves over his last 50 games (25-8 with a 2.46 ERA, 1.035 WHIP, and 390 strikeouts over 303.1 innings) is well worth an ace investment. When on the clock, I would select him over Cristopher Sanchez. An excellent chance at 15+ wins with a sub-2.50 ERA and 225+ strikeouts.

Projections: 15-7 with a 2.59 ERA, 1.046 WHIP, and 234 strikeouts over 183.0 innings

4 - Jacob deGrom, New York Mets

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

Fantasy Outlook: Other than home runs allowed and a step back in his strikeout rate (9.6 – 10.8 in his career), deGrom showcased an ace skill set last year, highlighted by batters hitting .196 against him. After a full season of starts, Texas should ride him harder in 2026, inviting a push over 190.0 innings, helping him win plenty of games. DeGrom looks overlooked in the early draft season based on his potential ceiling. I expect similar results in ERA and WHIP while pushing his strikeout total over 200.

Projections: 14-7 with a 2.71 ERA, 0.911 WHIP, and 204 strikeouts over 180.0 innings

5 - Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners

Fantasy Outlook: Over the past four seasons, Gilbert went 41-31 with a 3.39 ERA, 1.038 WHIP, and 756 strikeouts over 716.0 innings, putting him more in the SP2 range in the fantasy market. Many will be drawn to his spike in his strikeout rate, but I can’t dismiss his elbow injury last year. He checks the command box, with a higher ceiling swing-and-pitch, and Gilbert was challenging to hit in 2024 (.196 BAA). Intriguing arm, and the law of averages for wins should be on his side this year.

Projections: 13-7 with a 2.91 ERA, 0.967 WHIP, and 228 strikeouts over 192.0 innings

6 - Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox

Fantasy Outlook: Crochet checks a lot of ace boxes, and the Red Sox have a developing offense, suggesting plenty of wins and strikeouts. His ERA and WHIP edge doesn’t look as high as Tarik Skubal's or Paul Skenes, and his back-to-back seasons with a massive jump in innings could lead to some regression. He allowed two runs or fewer in 25 of his 32 starts last season. Great arm, with a winning foundation in wins, ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts.

Projections: 15-7 with a 3.02 ERA, 1.069 WHIP, and 240 strikeouts over 198.3 innings

7 - Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers

Fantasy Outlook: Yamamoto brings a great resume from Japan (66-37 record with a 1.64 ERA, 0.902 WHIP, and 869 strikeouts over 833.0 innings). His finish in 2025 puts him in the ace range, but he had a jump of 121.0 innings from last season. A previous triceps injury could be a hint at a future elbow issue. Pitchers for the Dodgers invite plenty of run support, suggesting 15+ wins with repeated success in ERA and WHIP. I could see him adding some more strikeouts with fewer free passes issued.

Projections: 13-6 with a 2.54 ERA, 0.978 WHIP, and 207 strikeouts over 174.0 innings

8 - Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies

Fantasy Outlook: At age 28, Sanchez reached the peak of his pitching mountain, thanks to his increase in velocity. His four-seamer fastball is the key to his success, as it sets up his swing-and-miss changeup. This season, his resume will be compared to better arms. I expect a push higher in wins, with a sub-3.00 ERA and another 200+ strikeout season.

Projections: 14-7 with a 2.84 ERA, 1.067 WHIP, and 208 strikeouts over 195.1 innings

9 - Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

Fantasy Outlook: The sum of Brown’s arsenal is special, with an electric ceiling once he figures out how to throw strike one on his first pitch. His ADP falls in a favorable range, suggesting a value ace. I expect growth in his strikeouts, helped by more length in his starts. Next step: 15 wins with plenty of help in ERA and WHIP.

Projections: 13-10 with a 3.01 ERA, 1.067 WHIP, and 215 strikeouts over 192.0 innings

10 - Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

Fantasy Outlook: Los Angeles plans on starting Ohtani this year, suggesting an ace arm, but he will be drafted for his bat. In 2022, he was the fourth-best pitcher by FPGscore (6.65). Over 100 career starts, Ohtani is 39-20 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.078 WHIP, and 670 strikeouts over 528,2 innings.

Projections: 13-4 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.033 WHIP, and 196 strikeouts over 150.2 innings