Fantasy Football Buy, Sell, or Hold: Brian Thomas Jr.

Breaking down what to do with Jacksonville Jaguars WR1, Brian Thomas Jr., in fantasy football.

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (7) rushes for yards after a reception during the fourth quarter of an NFL football matchup at EverBank Stadium, Sunday, Sept. 21, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars defeated the Texans 17-10. | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Jacksonville Jaguars' WR1 Brian Thomas Jr. is on the brink of an extremely disappointing season. His hype of what he could be in fantasy football in 2025 blossomed off his impressive rookie year in 2024. In no game so far, this year has he matched that expected potential. Here is whether to buy, sell, or hold Thomas Jr. in fantasy football.

Jacksonville Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr.

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (7) hauls in a reception against Houston Texans safety Calen Bullock (2) during the fourth quarter of an NFL football matchup at EverBank Stadium, Sunday, Sept. 21, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars defeated the Texans 17-10. | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Brian Thomas Jr. is coming off another underwhelming fantasy performance. Against the San Francisco 49ers, he had five catches for 49 yards. In the four games Thomas Jr. has played so far this season, he has yet to have a game over 60 yards receiving. In his rookie season in 2024 in his last seven games he had sixty or more yards in the last seven games of the season. During this stretch, he was averaging 96.4 receiving yards, 7.1 receptions, and 11 targets per game. Over the first four games this year, Thomas Jr. has averaged three receptions and eight targets per game. 

The main notable difference between his success over this stretch to how he is performing now is the QB position. During the seven games mentioned the starting QB for the Jaguars was Mac Jones, not Trevor Lawrence.

In nine complete games with Lawrence Thomas Jr. averaged 66 receiving yards per game compared to 85.9 yards per game with Jones in eight games. The thought of this having no meaning going into the 2025 season, seemed likely, with Lawrence proving to be a better QB through his NFL tenure, but in 2025 Thomas Jr. and Lawrence have struggled to develop an elite connection.

One thing that also hurts the case of the urgency to force feed Thomas Jr. and for him and Lawrence to start to put up big numbers together, is the Jaguars are winning games. So far in the 2025 season they are 3-1. If they were struggling they might be trying to find a way to get Thomas Jr. involved with more urgency.

Final Verdict

Thomas Jr. is one of the most talented young players the NFL has to offer but given his production and the factors mentioned above he is a hold candidate. He is too risky of an acquisition right now to try to go out and make a deal for given his production so far. Through three weeks in PPR formats in fantasy football he has finished WR42, WR56, WR50, and most recently WR30. With this he is at an all-time low in his stock value, which also goes into making him a hold candidate. Most of the time in fantasy football it is never smart to sell at a low point.  Holding on to Thomas Jr. for one more week given their schedule outlook is the way to go.

The Jaguars play a middle of the pack secondary in week five against the Seattle Seahawks. So far in the 2025 season they have allowed the 16th most passing yards a game. If he struggles mightily against them and fails to get any relevant production, then it may be a good idea to start looking for buyers. Out of the next three weeks following Jacksonville’s game against Seattle they play two teams who currently rank inside the top ten in fewest passing yards allowed per game.