Fantasy Football Late-Round Quarterback Debate: Baker Mayfield vs. Kyler Murray

Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray are potential late-round quarterbacks to target in 2026 fantasy football. Which one should you choose?

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray (1) warms up before the game against the Baltimore Ravens at U.S. Bank Stadium. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Waiting to select a quarterback until the later rounds of fantasy football drafts is a feasible strategy in one-quarterback leagues due to the various options available. Of the late-round options to choose from, Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray are two popular names to consider.

If it comes down to selecting Mayfield and Murray, which veteran quarterback should you select in your fantasy football draft?

All stats used in this article are from Sumer Sports unless stated otherwise. The average draft position (ADP) for each player in this article is from FantasyPros’ consensus real-time ADP.

The Case for Baker Mayfield

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) throws the ball during a joint Buccaneers‑Jaguars NFL practice at the Miller Electric Center on Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2026, in Jacksonville, Fla. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

FantasyPros’ Consensus Real-Time ADP: 148.1 (QB19)

From Week 1 to Week 6 of last season, Mayfield was tied with Dak Prescott as the QB4 in fantasy points per game (21.1). However, due to various injuries, he fell to QB21 in fantasy points per game (14.2) from Week 7 to Week 18.

Although Mayfield saw his passing yardage output decline below 4,000 yards for the first time in his three seasons with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last season, he did record a career-best 382 rushing yards. Can we expect a 31-year-old Mayfield (who is in a contract year) to maintain that level of rushing or improve upon it?

It’s also worth noting that Mike Evans is no longer a member of the Bucs, though Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, Jalen McMillan, Bucky Irving, and Kenneth Gainwell are more than enough to field an above-average passing attack. Even if Mayfield doesn’t have the same rushing production from a season ago, his passing metrics could improve if he remains healthy.

The Case for Kyler Murray

Most fantasy points per game from scrambles in 2025

Patrick Mahomes - 4.3
Kyler Murray - 4.0
Drake Maye - 3.6
Josh Allen - 3.6
Jayden Daniels - 3.5 pic.twitter.com/FbHwmCBQxG

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) May 11, 2026

FantasyPros’ Consensus ADP: 136.3 (QB17)

It was admittedly a disastrous 2025 season for Kyler Murray in his final year with the Arizona Cardinals, as he concluded the campaign as the QB20 in fantasy points per game (16.2). Murray was active through Week 5 of last season before suffering an injury, and he never returned for a Cardinals team that knew it was prepared to move on from him.

Fast forward to now, and Murray is now the official starting quarterback for the Minnesota Vikings. Not only does Murray get to play under the best playcaller of his career in Kevin O’Connell, but he also gets to have Justin Jefferson as his No. 1 WR in an offense that also features Jordan Addison, Jauan Jennings, Aaron Jones, and T.J. Hockenson.

Before last season’s debacle, Kyler never finished worse than QB14 in fantasy points per game. Murray is also just a season removed from logging the eighth-best rush EPA (17.2), 10th-best success rate (49.6%), and seventh-best completion rate (68.8%) among QBs.

Final Verdict: Draft Mayfield or Murray?

Before making a final decision between Mayfield and Murray, I want to preface my choice in this article by saying that both of these guys are two of my favorite late-round targets. Both of these quarterbacks are part of potential above-average offenses, and they are entering prove-it years with their respective teams.

Between Mayfield and Murray, Mayfield certainly provides a higher ceiling in the passing department. Murray has never achieved 4,000-plus passing yards and/or 30-plus passing touchdowns in a season in his career. Meanwhile, Mayfield threw for over 4,000 yards with the Bucs in 2023 and 2024, and he tossed a career-best 41 touchdowns just two years ago.

Despite Mayfield’s passing production being a bit more reliable, Murray possesses the higher ceiling due to his rushing usage, and he has legitimate league-winning upside if he remains the starter for the Vikings. The path for Mayfield to be a QB1 is a lot slimmer, making Murray the clear choice as a late-round dart at quarterback.