Munetaka Murakami's Boom-or-Bust Power vs. Kazuma Okamoto's Reliable Floor

The quest for power can come with batting average risk, and there is something to be said for playing in a high scoirng lineup while hitting close to a stud bat.

Mar 21, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Japan manager Hideki Kuriyama (89) celebrates after defeating Team USA to win the World Baseball Classic at LoanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Based on the early over/under home run props line for Munetaka Murakami (27.5) and Kazuma Okamoto (22.5), the power edge goes to the White Sox's new third base option.

3B Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox (NFBC ADP - 214)

3B Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox | Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

A fantasy drafter has to look no further than Murakami’s 2022 season to see his potential and ceiling. He hit .318 over 487 at-bats with 114 runs, 56 home runs, 134 RBIs, and 12 steals at age 22. Pitchers walked him 19.3% of the time while posting a league-average strikeout rate (20.9%).

Over eight seasons in Japan, Murakami hit .273 with 598 runs, 265 home runs, 722 RBIs, and 76 stolen bases over 3,516 at-bats. His walk rate (16.0) has been elite in his career, but his strikeout rate (25.2%) has had more risk over the past three years (28.1%, 29.5%, and 27.0%), most likely due to him wanting to put more balls in the seats.

Murakami came into last year with a recovery from elbow surgery and a broken toe. An oblique issue led him to miss half of 2025. He has hit 30 or more home runs in five seasons.

Meanwhile in NPB. MURAKAMI hits HR #8. (He was out for most of the season!)🤯#npb #村上宗隆 ⚾ pic.twitter.com/bnmY8uKyU6

— Japan ⚔ Baseball (@JapanggX) August 21, 2025

His average hit rate (2.016) supports 40 home runs, and he had a high contact batting average (.392) in his Japanese career.

Fantasy Outlook: In his first year in the majors, Murakami has many hurdles to clear with his ability to make contact. He must continue to be patient to hold onto his value in walks. My mental picture is a 2024 Elly De La Cruz strikeout rate (31.3) with a much better home-run swing path. I expect a learning curve, but Murakami will crush many mistakes into the seats.

The White Sox signed him to a two-year deal for $34 million. If Murakami can regain his early career contact rate, his ceiling will be that much higher. He projects as a DH player, but Chicago listed him at first base over the winter. Maybe a left-handed version of Eugenio Suarez is a fair outlook early in his MLB career.

3B Kazuma Okamoto, Toronto Blue Jays (NFBC ADP - 223)

3B Kazuma Okamoto, Toronto Blue Jays | Mike Watters-Imagn Images

Okamoto comes to Toronto with 11 years of experience in Japan. He hit .274 over 5,010 at-bats with 698 runs, 277 home runs, 872 RBIs, and 14 steals. His walk rate (10.2%) was favorable while striking out 18.3% of the time. From 2018 to 2024, Okamoto hit 30 more home runs each year, with peak power coming in 2023 (41 home runs over 503 at-bats).

Last season, he missed close to half of the year due to a sprained left elbow. Before 2025, Okamoto was on the field for at least 140 games six times over his previous seven seasons. His bat stayed productive last year (.322/39/15/51/1 over 270 at-bats). He has a career 1.829 average hit rate, which supports 30+ home runs with over 550 at-bats.

Kazuma Okamoto clubs his first @BlueJays home run! pic.twitter.com/0A8XmqCGAD

— MLB (@MLB) February 23, 2026

The Blue Jays signed Okamoto to a four-year deal for $60 million in early January. His defense grades well while offering his speed. His swing path looks to be flyball-favoring (over 50.0% over the past three seasons with a pull approach (53.4% in 2024 and 47.2% in 2025). His hard-hit rate last year was about 32.0%.

Fantasy Outlook: Toronto should hit Okamoto one slot off Vladimir Guerrero, helping his runs or RBIs. There will be a learning curve in the majors, but he still should have a chance to deliver a neutral batting average with an 80/25/80 profile. My mental picture is of a slightly better player than Isaac Paredes in offensive production.

2026 Fantasy Winner: I expect Kazuma Okamoto to be the more valuable player to fantasy teams in 5 X 5 Roto formats. My first projections had him ranked 13th at third base, compared to 21st by Munetaka Murakami.