My Top Three Injury Risk Aces - Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Bryan Woo, and Cole Ragans

Most pitchers fail due to injuries, or they do not regain their form after suffering a signficant injury the previous year. Tanner Bibee, Zac Gallon, and Sandy Alcantara were the top pitchers who stayed on the field but crushed fantasy teams' ERA and WHIP in too many starts. Here's a list of the top 40 pitchers that underachived expectation in 2025:

1 – Zack Wheeler – eight missed starts/pitched well

2 – Logan Gilbert – eight missed starts/pitched well

3 – Chris Sale – 11 missed starts/pitched well

4 – Corbin Burns – bust

5 – Blake Snell – 21 missed starts

6 – Cole Ragans – bust

7 – Tyler Glasnow – 14 missed starts/pitched well

8 – Michael King – bust

9 – Pablo Lopez – 18 missed starts/pitched well

10 – Tanner Bibee – Underachieved expectations

11 – Bailey Ober – Bust

12 – Bryce Miller – Bust

13 – Roki Sasaki – Bust

14 – Aaron Nola – Bust

15 – Spencer Strider – Bust

16 – Shane McClanahan – Bust

17 – Zac Gallen – Bust

18 – Justin Steele – Bust

19 – Jared Jones – Bust

20 – Sandy Alcantara – Bust

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers (NFBC ADP – 25)

In his first season with Los Angeles, Yamamoto missed almost three months with a triceps issue in his right arm. After a sluggish major league debut (five runs and five baserunners over one inning with two strikeouts), he went 6-1 over his following 12 starts with a 2.41 ERA, 1.014 WHIP, and 81 strikeouts over 71.0 innings.

Unfortunately, Yamamoto left his next game after pitching two shutout innings. The Dodgers eased him back into action in September (six runs and 21 baserunners over 16.0 innings with 21 strikeouts), followed by four appearances in the postseason (2-0 with a 3.86 ERA, 0.964 WHIP, and 15 strikeouts over 18.2 innings).

Last year, Yamamoto had a regression in his command (3.1 walks per nine) while maintaining his strikeout rate (10.4). He allowed the fewest hits per nine innings (5.9) in the National League, with batters hitting .183 against him.

Surprisingly, his arm has much more value on the road (9-4 with a 2.13 ERA, 0.890 WHIP, and 118 strikeouts over 105.2 innings). Yamamoto was the Dodgers’ best arm over his last six starts (2-0 with a 1.13 ERA, 0.700 WHIP, and 50 strikeouts over 40.0 innings) and the postseason (5-1 with a 1.45 ERA, 0.777 WHIP, and 33 strikeouts over 37.1 innings).

His average fastball (95.4 mph) aligned with his first season with Los Angeles. Yamamoto gained his pitching edge with an electric split-finger pitch (.128 BAA with 95 strikeouts), four-seamer (.196 BAA), and curveball (.171 BAA) while mixing in a sinker (.259 BAA), cutter (.244 BAA), and a show-me slider (.115 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Yamamoto brings a great resume from Japan (66-37 record with a 1.64 ERA, 0.902 WHIP, and 869 strikeouts over 833.0 innings). His finish in 2025 puts him in the ace range, but he had a jump of 121.0 innings from last season. A previous triceps injury could be a hint at a future elbow issue. Pitchers for the Dodgers invite plenty of run support, suggesting 15+ wins with repeated success in ERA and WHIP. I could see him adding some more strikeouts with fewer free passes issued.

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners (NFBC ADP – 43)

The Mariners came into last year with four talented young arms. Of those players, Woo appeared to have the most injury risk based on his 2024 season. He ended up making 30 starts, with frontline ace results – fourth-best FPGscore (6.94) for pitchers.

In his sophomore year with the Mariners, he had had two lengthy stints on the injured list. Woo opened 2024 with a right elbow issue, leading to his season debut coming on May 10th. His stuff arm was electric over his first eight appearances (3-1 with a 1.77 ERA, 0.689 WHIP, and 28 strikeouts over 42.2 innings).

A hamstring injury sidelined him for another 17 days early in the summer. Woo pitched well over his final 14 starts (6-2 with a 3.46 ERA, 1.004 WHIP, and 73 strikeouts over 80.2 innings). Home runs (12) became an issue over this span while struggling in four contests (19 runs, 34 baserunners, and seven home runs over 20.1 innings with 15 strikeouts), three of which came over his last six starts.

Last season, Woo had similar success in ERA (2.94) and WHIP (0.927), while upping his strikeout rate (9.5) and maintaining his edge in his command (1.7 walks per nine). Batters hit .200 against him, compared to .211 in 2024. His 15 wins ranked fifth in the majors. Woo allowed two runs or fewer in two-thirds of his 30 starts, pitching at least six innings in 27 games. He went 10-2 at home with a 2.44 ERA, 0.801 WHIP, and 100 strikeouts over 88.2 innings.

His average fastball (95.6 mph) was his best with Seattle. Woo featured an electric four-seamer (.153 BAA with 95 strikeouts) and a plus slider (.184 BAA with 63 strikeouts). His changeup (.235 BAA) worked well while offering a neutral sinker (.257 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: Other than a late-season pectoral issue (two missed starts), Woo removed his injury risk stigma in 2025, at least from the eyes of the fantasy market. His efficiency allows him to pitch deeper in games, creating more win chances (46.2% of the past two seasons). All visual signs point to another great season, while his dark passenger (right elbow issue in 2024) shouldn’t be forgotten.

Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals (NFBC ADP – 49)

In 2024, Ragans allowed three runs or fewer in 15 of his first 17 starts, leading to a 3.03 ERA, 1.153 WHIP, and 120 strikeouts over 98.0 innings. He gave up 14 runs, 18 baserunners, and one home run over eight innings on his two down days.

His arm regressed over his next 11 games (4.12 ERA, 1.184 WHIP, and eight home runs over 63.1 innings with 77 strikeouts). Ragans pitched well in September (1.08 ERA over 25.0 innings with 26 strikeouts).

Unfortunately, the excitement of Ragans lasted only four starts (1-0 with a 2.28 ERA, 0.930 WHIP, and 34 strikeouts over 23.2 innings) last season. His left arm lost value in four of his next five games (17 runs, 33 baserunners, and three home runs over 22.0 innings with 38 strikeouts), leading to a trip to the injured list (left rotator cuff strain) for the next four months, except for one start (five runs, eight baserunners, and four strikeouts over three innings). The Royals had him back on the mound for three more starts at the end of September (2.77 ERA, 0.769 WHIP, and 22 strikeouts over 13.0 innings).

His average fastball (95.7 mph) aligned with 2024. Ragans had success with four pitches (four-seam – .205 BAA, changeup – .191 BAA, slider – .225 BAA, and curveball – .200 BAA). He also threw a failing show-me cutter (.462 BAA).

Fantasy Outlook: After leading the American League in strikeouts per nine innings (10.8) in 2024, Ragans upped his strikeout rate (14.3) last year over short innings (61.2). His WHIP (1.184) in 2025 suggested he should have had a better outcome in ERA. Tempting arm, but two TJ surgeries and a left shoulder issue make him a risky investment as a frontline fantasy starter. A ceiling of a sub-3.00 ERA with impact strikeouts, paired with the potential of another lost season. I’ll go with your ace, not mine.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers (NFBC ADP – 25)

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners (NFBC ADP – 43)

Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals (NFBC ADP – 49)

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