The Aircraft Carrier Returns: Yordan Alvarez's 2026 Power Surge Awaits

Yordan Alvarez went down as a first-round bust last year due to him missing 114 games with a right-hand injury, followed by a left ankle injury in September. Most of his 2025 metrics were well below his career path, which adds little to his outlook this year.

DH Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Greatness lies within the bat and skill set of Jordan Alvarez, but can he stay on the field for 150 games? And, is the Houston Astros' offense good enough for him to get elite RBI chances?

Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros (NFBC ADP – 39)

2026 Yordan Alvarez Player Stats | Shawn Childs

In 2023, an oblique injury led Alvarez to miss about 45 days between June and July. Over his first 202 at-bats, he hit .277 with 41 runs, 17 home runs, and 55 RBIs. After returning from his injury, his bat stayed on a productive path (.308/36/14/42 over 208 at-bats).

Alvarez set career highs in plate appearances (635), at-bats (552), hits (170), batting average (.308), and steals (6) in 2024. Unfortunately, his value in runs (88) and RBIs (86) fell short of expectations. He continued to offer an edge in his contact batting average (.372) with an excellent approach (strikeout rate – 15.0 and walk rate (10.9) for a power hitter. Alvarez had a regression in his average hit rate (1.841) while struggling more with runners on base (RBI rate – 15).

His bat was elite vs. left-handed pitching (.362/23/10/30/1 over 188 at-bats), with more success on the road (.333 with 53 runs, 22 home runs, 56 RBIs, and three stolen bases over 273 at-bats). Alvarez lost his power in May (.283/10/2/4/3 over 106 at-bats). He hit between seven and eight home runs in four different months. From June through August, his batting average (.347) was a significant edge, leading to 48 runs, 19 home runs, 49 RBIs, and three steals over 254 at-bats. Alvarez missed the final five games of the season with a right knee issue.

Air Yordan 🚀

Yordan Alvarez mashes his first home run since returning from the IL! pic.twitter.com/ey8ceppUSU

— MLB (@MLB) August 28, 2025

Last year, his exit velocity (94.7), launch angle (18.3), and hard-hit rate (52.9%) aligned with his career path. He had a pullback in his barrel rate (13.8%) while finishing with a career-low HR/FB rate (9.5) by a wide margin (20.9% in his career). His flyball rate (45.7%) remained at the top of his range.

Fantasy Outlook: Alvarez finished 15th in FPGscore (5.34) for hitters in 2024 while underperforming in runs and RBIs for his improved opportunity. When at his best and healthy, he brings an edge in batting average and power. The Astros should give him the keys to the DH almost exclusively this year, which may lead to the most playing time of his career. Based on his early ADP (39) in the high-stakes, Alvarez appears to be an excellent cheat foundation bat. A .300/90/40/120/5 season is well within his reach, but he must be on the field for 150 games.

The Astros stated that he would play some in outfield, helping Alvarez lose his DH-only tag. With four 30+ home run seasons on his resume, he looks poised to have a bounce-back season. I have him projected to hit .295 this year over 498 at-bats (137 games) with 98 runs, 39 home runs, 101 RBIs, and three steals.