Who Is a Fantasy Baseball Potential Breakout Hitter Who Has Been a Big ADP Faller?

The direction of a player in drafts typically shows what the public opinion is of him based on recent news and his current opportunity. In many cases, fading ADPs aren't value gifts, but I see one overlooked batter who looks poised to pop in 2026.

I've lost a 100 spots in ADP over the past two months. | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

After success over three seasons (.320/172/53/166/37 over 693 at-bats) at Maryland, the Cubs selected Shaw 13th overall in the 2023 MLB June Amateur Draft. Chicago gave him 38 games over three levels in the minors in 2023, leading to a .357 batting average with 27 runs, eight home runs, 28 RBIs, and 15 stolen bases.

Matt Shaw, Chicago Cubs (NFBC ADP – 283)

3B Matt Shaw, Chicago Cubs | Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

In 2024, he split time between AA (.279/60/14/50/25 over 312 at-bats) and AAA (.298/18/7/21/6 over 131 at-bats). Shaw made the Cubs' opening day roster last season, but his bat was overmatched at the plate over his first 18 games (10-for-58 with 11 runs, one home run, three RBIs) due to a higher strikeout rate (26.5%).

Chicago shipped him to AAA for 24 games, where Shaw was a much better player (.286/22/6/14/5 over 91 at-bats), with 17 walks and 11 strikeouts.

The Cubs gave him 88 starts over their final 108 games, leading to a .236 batting average with 46 runs, 12 home runs, 41 RBIs, and 17 steals over 335 at-bats. Most of his struggles came from right-handed batters (.218/39/7/30/14 over 293 at-bats). Shaw finished with a slightly better than league average approach (strikeout rate – 21.5% and walk rate – 8.7%).

His exit velocity (84.9) and hard-hit rate (29.4%) came in below expectations. Shaw had a balanced swing path in the majors, but he tends to have a high infield fly rate (13.3%), suggesting timing issues.

Matt Shaw's home run ties up the ballgame for the Cubs 💥

📺 ESPN pic.twitter.com/mc4Wto4PuH

— ESPN (@espn) August 11, 2025

Fantasy Outlook: His ADP ranking in the high-stakes market is much lower now after the Cubs signed Alex Bregman. I still see a path for full-time at-bats, but I only projected him to hit .251 over 427 at-bats with 65 runs, 16 home runs, 59 RBIs, and 21 steals.

Shaw still has the opportunity to steal at-bats at DH, and potentially have a platoon role at first base. His experience at second base and shortstop also creates another window for playing time. Chicago signed Michael Conforto in late February to a minor league contract, which may be a problem for Shaw at DH.

Other than his hard-hit and exit velocity metrics, Shaw appears to be ready to make a further push up the fantasy rankings in 2026. I like his direction and balanced skill set, creating a buying opportunity in drafts in March. His bat should come faster than most of the fantasy market expects, forcing the Cubs to play him more often. With 550 at-bats, Shaw has the talent to be a 20/30 player, making a winning investment as his lower price point.