2025 Fantasy Football: Worst Five Quarterbacks Strength of Schedule
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Last year, the fantasy market took advantage of a favorable fantasy schedule for the Cincinnati Bengals from Weeks 15, 16, and 17, leading to some big pay days and league championships. This research can also help the fantasy market find players to fade late in the season based on their schedule.
After walking through the wide receiver and tight end receiving data, I decided to look at the quarterback strength of schedule data through a different lens. I merged all the running back, wide receiver, and tight end fantasy points outcomes in PPR formats from last season.
I wanted to show which quarterbacks delivered the best value to their receiving corps in fantasy points. With no rushing stats included, it does change the overall quarterback matchup data. So, in this exercise, I am showing the best and worst offenses and defenses in receiving fantasy points.
Here's a look at the bulk of each team’s schedule – six division games, plus one other AFC division and one NFC division:
AFC East: AFC North/NFC South
AFC North: AFC East/NFC North
AFC South: AFC West/NFC West
AFC West: AFC South/NFC East
NFC East: AFC West/NFC North
NFC North: AFC North/NFC East
NFC South: AFC East/NFC West
NFC West: AFC South/NFC South
Based on this structure, the NFC South should have the worst quarterback schedule in its two AFC/NFC division matchups.
32) New Orleans Saints (Tyler Shough)
Since the conclusion of the 2025 NFL Draft, I’ve been kicking the Saints' investment in Tyler Shough as their future starting quarterback. Derek Carr's retirement lowers the quarterback bar in New Orleans, and they don’t have a favorable schedule outside of their division. They face 11 of the top 20 quarterback defenses, but all NFC South matchups rank in the top six.
31) Las Vegas Raiders (Geno Smith)
The addition of Ashton Jeanty suggests more runs by the Raiders in 2025. Their passing schedule isn’t ideal due to facing four NFC East opponents that ranked in the top 15, highlighted by the Commanders (3) and the Eagles (4). Both teams feature the run game, allowing their offense to control the clock in many matchups. Kansas City (16), Los Angeles Chargers (13), and Denver (21) combined suggest some winning passing days within the AFC West.
TEN (1), HOU (11), IND (25), and JAC (31) have as much upside and downside, but the Raiders’ lack of wide receiver firepower does work against them in some of these matchups. Las Vegas also plays the Patriots (12), Bears (5), and Browns (7). By name value and draft additions, New England and Chicago invested more on the offensive side of the ball in 2025. Ultimately, Geno Smith may throw less based on his schedule, leading to lower quarterback production.
30) Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers’ passing attack gets a downgrade out of the gate based on wide receiver options and a low ceiling in rushing expected from their starting quarterbacks. In addition, their coaching staff would like to slow down the game with the run and good defense.
Based on last year, their AFC North matchups (BAL – 28, CIN – 22, and CLE – 7) are reasonable, while the Jets (2), Dolphins (8), Patriots (12), and Bills (26) have a league-average feel. Buffalo addressed their defensive shortfalls in the draft.
Pittsburgh draws Green Bay (17th), Minnesota (29th), Detroit (20th), and Chicago (5th), which are favorable for the Steelers, and they will most likely be forced to chase on the scoreboard in some of these matchups. Their final three contest are against SEA (18), LAC (13), and IND (25).
29) Carolina Panthers (Bryce Young)
I’m excited to see how Tetairoa McMillan upgrades the Panthers’ offense, and Carolina does have favorable division matchups. The combination of facing the AFC East and the NFC West, paired with DAL (15), GB (17), and JAC (29), gives them 10 games vs. the top 19 passing defenses in 2024. Last year, the Saints ranked 14th in passing fantasy stats.
28) Jacksonville Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence)
In 2024, the Jaguars ranked 24th in passing stats to their receiving corps due to injuries to Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram. Even with offseason chances, Travis Hunter brings hope to the Jacksonville passing outlook.
Tennessee (1) and Houston (11) defended receivers well last season, while the Colts ranked 25th in receiving stats allowed to quarterbacks. Their matchups with the AFC West and the NFC West are slightly better than the league average. The Jets (2), Bengals (22), and Panthers (27) push their overall schedule bar closer to the league average.
Reviewing all of these matchups is challenging to get a handle on due to the direction of each NFL team’s offense and defense via the draft and offseason moves. In the end, game score and injuries are significant factors in the success of passing offenses.
More Fantasy Football News:
2025 Fantasy Football: Top 5 Wide Receiver Strength Of Schedule Matchups
2025 NFL Schedule Release: Ranking Christmas Day Matchups
2025 Fantasy Football: Top 5 Quarterback Strength Of Schedules
2025 Fantasy Football: Top 5 Tight End Strength of Schedule Matchups
With 20+ years of experience in the high-stakes fantasy market, I aim to research and compete at the highest level in baseball and football each season. I've contributed as a writer/analyst for Sports Draft Daily, ScoutPro, Scout Fantasy, Fulltime Fantasy, FFToolbox, and Sports Illustrated Fantasy. I'm honored to be in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Hall of Fame. My drafting philosophy is risk-averse yet open to betting on potential game-changers. I approach player selection with a neutral perspective, acknowledging that fantasy sports are inherently unpredictable due to injuries, performance dips, and managerial decisions. My work focuses on these main areas: - Season-long fantasy baseball and football - BestBall Baseball and Football Events - Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS): DraftKings, FanDuel, and Underdog - Long Shot Player Prop Parlays for NFL I participate in various leagues and contests, including NFBC, NFFC, RTSports, FFPC, DraftKings, Underdog Fantasy, FanDuel, and FFWC, with the goal of leveraging my extensive experience and research for success in each game format. A fantasy follower can expect in-depth profiles of NFL and MLB players, along with season-long and weekly projections for each fantasy football season. In addition, I have many strategy articles to help develop fantasy players' learning curves.
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