Bills vs. Chiefs and Other Week 9 Over/Under Games to Target in Fantasy Football

High point totals mean opportunity, and several key matchups stand out as potential fantasy goldmines in Week 9.

Oct 26, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) drops to throw during the first half against the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Week 9 of the NFL season is already upon us, and the challenge of setting lineups and finding an edge in fantasy football only becomes greater than the week before.  

While talent and matchups always matter, one of the most reliable indicators of fantasy potential comes from the betting market. High over/unders signal expected scoring, and more points on the board generally translate to more opportunities for fantasy production. Every touchdown and red-zone trip boosts the chances for quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, tight ends and even kickers to deliver starter-worthy numbers. 

This week’s slate offers several matchups with enticing totals. A handful of contests stand out as potential fantasy goldmines, making them worth targeting when finalizing lineups. Below are the games, along with some included fantasy football analysis and advice. 

*Over/under totals obtained from FanDuel Sportsbook* 

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills (O/U: 51.5)

Tied for the second-highest total on the slate, this AFC clash sets up as a fantasy goldmine. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have matched up nine times in their careers, including regular season and playoffs. In those nine games, there has been an average of 54 points scored per game. Buffalo’s secondary has held up this season, but weapons such as Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce will have no problem exploiting it. Isiah Pacheco doesn’t always see enough volume to be a fantasy superstar. Still, he should see plenty of opportunities against Buffalo’s defensive front that ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (150.3). On the other side, James Cook remains a must-start, especially coming off a career-high 216-yard rushing performance vs. the Panthers. Khalil Shakir is the wide receiver to play for the Bills, projecting as a flex option, while Dalton Kincaid should also be in lineups despite sometimes being inconsistent. Lastly, it’s fair to bench Keon Coleman as the second-year pro has yet to match his production in Week 1. Expect plenty of fantasy production across the board in what could be one of the most entertaining games of Week 9.

Oct 19, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice (4) congratulates wide receiver Hollywood Brown (5) after a touchdown during the first half against the Las Vegas Raiders at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Quarterbacks:

Patrick Mahomes - Must Start 

Josh Allen - Must Start 

Running Backs:

James Cook - Must Start 

Isiah Pacheco - Start 

Brashard Smith - Flex 

Kareem Hunt - Sit 

Wide Receivers:

Rashee Rice - Start

Khalil Shakir - Flex

Xavier Worthy - Flex

Hollywood Brown - Bench

Keon Coleman - Bench 

Tight Ends:

Travis Kelce - Start 

Dalton Kincaid - Start

Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals (O/U: 51.5)

This matchup also carries shootout potential, with both offenses having firepower and both defenses being highly exploitable. Caleb Williams faces a Bengals defense that gives up the third-most passing yards per game (256.0), making him a start alongside Joe Flacco, who continues to command Cincinnati’s offense with three straight multi-touchdown games. D’Andre Swift and Chase Brown are both appealing RB2 plays. The Bengals have the worst run defense in the NFL, giving up an average of 151.9 yards per game, and the Bears have the sixth-worst, surrendering an average of 143.3 yards per game. Ja’Marr Chase remains a must-start every week, while Rome Odunze’s breakout season has him firmly in play as a low-end WR1. DJ Moore and Tee Higgins both project as flex options with upside in what should be a back-and-forth contest. Neither Noah Fant nor Colston Loveland is trustworthy outside deeper formats, but both could find red-zone opportunities. 

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Flacco (16) throws a pass in the fourth quarter of the NFL Week 7 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers at Paycor Stadium in downtown Cincinnati on Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025. The Bengals won, 33-31. | Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Quarterbacks:

Caleb Williams - Start 

Joe Flacco - Start 

Running Backs:

D’Andre Swift - Start 

Chase Brown - Start 

Kyle Monangai - Bench 

Wide Receivers:

Ja’Marr - Must Start

Rome Odunze - Start 

DJ Moore - Flex  

Tee Higgins - Flex 

Tight Ends:

Noah Fant - Deeper League Play 

Colston Loveland - Deeper League Play 

Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys (O/U: 53.5)

This game checks in with the highest over/under total of the week. The Cowboys rank second in the NFL in points scored per game (30.8), while the Cardinals have been in close games all year and should produce one of their better offensive performances against a Dallas defense that allows the second-most points per game (31.3). Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray — with his anticipated return — are both strong starts. CeeDee Lamb remains an elite option against an Arizona secondary that allows the eighth-most passing yards per game (234.9). At the same time, Jake Ferguson continues to see consistent red-zone looks, keeping him firmly in TE1 territory despite posting a goose egg in his last outing. On the other side, Trey McBride is a must-start with his heavy target share, and Marvin Harrison Jr. sees a significant boost against a weak secondary. George Pickens brings big-play appeal as a WR2, while both Michael Carter and Bam Knight are usable flex options, as the Cowboys also have the fourth-worst run defense, surrendering 146 rushing yards per game. Javonte Williams’ steady goal-line workload also makes him a safe option.

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) chats with teammate Michael Wilson (14) before their game against the Tennessee Titans at State Farm Stadium in Glendale on Oct. 5, 2025. | Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Quarterbacks:

Dak Prescott - Start 

Kyler Murray - Start 

Running Backs:

Javonte Williams - Start 

Bam Knight - Flex 

Michael Carter - Flex 

Wide Receivers:

Ceedee Lamb - Must Start

George Pickens - Start 

Marvin Harrison Jr. - Start 

Tight Ends:

Trey McBride - Must Start

Jake Ferguson - Start 

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins (O/U: 49.5)

This matchup features two explosive offenses and two struggling defenses, the ingredients for a high-scoring affair. Lamar Jackson is a must-start in his anticipated return. Despite recent struggles, Derrick Henry is a must-start against the fifth-worst rushing defense on a per-game basis, as it allows 145 yards per game. Zay Flowers is in play as a WR2 with his QB1 back, while Mark Andrews sees a boost against a Dolphins defense that struggles to contain tight ends. On the Miami side, De’Von Achane is a must-start thanks to his elite efficiency and big-play ability. Jaylen Waddle is a high-end WR2 against a Baltimore secondary that gives us over 250 passing yards per contest. For that exact reason, Tua Tagovailoa is a viable streaming option, especially coming off a four-touchdown performance against a stingy Falcons defense. 

Sep 28, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) throws a pass during the second quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Quarterbacks:

Lamar Jackson - Must Start 

Tua Tagovailoa - Deeper League Play 

Running Backs:

De’Von Achane - Must Start

Derrick Henry - Start 

Wide Receivers:

Zay Flowers - Start

Jaylen Waddle - Start 

Malik Washington - Deeper League Play  

Rashod Bateman - Bench 

Tight Ends:

Mark Andrews - Start 

Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders (O/U: 45.5)

This matchup could quietly deliver strong fantasy returns, with Jayden Daniels’ anticipated return. He and Sam Darnold are starts, especially Darnold against a Commanders defense that allows 238.3 passing yards per game (7th most in the NFL). Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a must-start as a top-three fantasy football wide receiver this season, while Deebo Samuel and Terry McLaurin are both in WR2 territory. Each team’s backfield offers flex value. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet continue to split work, while Jacory Croskey-Merritt’s upside keeps him relevant in deeper leagues. At tight end, Zach Ertz profiles as a steady streamer with red-zone appeal, and rookie AJ Barner is a deeper league dart throw with potential to fall into the end zone. 

Oct 20, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11) celebrates on the goal post after a touchdown during the first quarter against the Houston Texans at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

Quarterbacks:

Jayden Daniels - Start 

Sam Darnold - Start 

Running Backs:

Kenneth Walker - Flex 

Zach Charbonnet - Flex 

Jacory Croskey-Merritt - Flex 

Wide Receivers:

Jaxon Smith-Njigba - Must Start 

Deebo Samuel - Start 

Terry McLaurin - Start

Cooper Kupp - Deeper League Play  

Tight Ends:

Zach Ertz - Start

AJ Barner - Deeper League Play