Broncos' Stars, Nix, Sutton, Dobbins Should Roll on Raiders in Tonight's AFC West Showdown

The Denver Broncos (7-2) head into Week 10 with a two-game lead over the Kansas City Chiefs, but the Chargers (6-3) have the edge in division play (3-0). The Broncos are tied with the New England Patriots for the longest current winning streak (six games). Over the past month, Denver has one game by two (13-11), one (33-32), and three (18-15) points while flashing good and bad offense and defense.

The Las Vegas Raiders (2-6) missed a chance to keep a glimmer of hope alive with a win vs. the Jaguars. They failed to protect a late fourth-quarter lead, followed by a game-tying drive in the final moments of overtime. Unfortunately, they went for the win with a two-point conversion with 16 seconds left on the clock. They’ve lost six of their previous seven matchups, two of which by a point.

TV: Prime Video

Time: 8:15 PM EST

Vegas Line (DraftKings): Denver -7.5 points

Over/Under: 42.5

To help game managers set their rosters in Week 10, here’s a look at the game preview and projections for the Raiders and Broncos:

Raiders, Projections, Week 10 — Raiders Player Projections Week 10 | Shawn Childs

Geno Smith, Las Vegas Raiders

Smith limped into the bye week with job loss risk after struggling to pass the ball in four consecutive games (117/2, 228/0, 174/1, and 67/0). Over this snap, he threw six interceptions. The return of Brock Bowers led to his best performance of the season (284/4).

DraftKings set his over/under at 210.5 passing yards (-113o). I have Smith projected to pass for 200 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. Denver has given up big plays to running backs (12.2 YPC) and tight ends (13.0) this year, suggesting the Raiders may move the ball better than expected if secondary wide receivers can step up after shipping Jakobi Meyers to the Jaguars. They set his over/under at a 0.5 touchdowns (-230o), almost baiting the public to take the over.

The Broncos are about league average in passing yards allowed (214 per game), with quarterbacks gaining 6.5 yards per pass attempt with eight passing touchdowns over nine matchups.

Daniel Jones (316/1)

Justin Herbert (300/1)

Jalen Hurts (280/2)

Jaxson Dart (283/3)

Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders

Ashton Jeanty, NFL, Week 10 — Nov 2, 2025; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty (2) runs the ball during the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Allegiant Stadium. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Eight games into his NFL career, Jeanty gained 620 combined yards with six touchdowns and 20 catches on 144 touches. He’s on pace for 1,318 combined yards with 13 touchdowns and 43 catches. His over/under in rushing yards (55.5 (-114o) has four wins (63, 138, 67, and 75) and four losses (38, 43, 21, and 42) this season. Jeanty is -105 to score an anytime touchdown.

Running backs gain only 3.8 yards per carry against the Broncos, with five scores on the ground and three passing. Back has beaten them for 12.2 yards per catch. Five running backs have gained over 56 rushing yards.

Tony Pollard (18/60)

Jonathan Taylor (25/165)

Omarion Hampton (19/70/1)

Breece Hall (22/59)

Cam Skattebo (16/60)

JK Dobbins, Denver Broncos

Dobbins hasn’t scored over his last four starts, after opening the year with four touchdowns in five contests. He’s gained over 75 rushing yards in six of his nine starts, with more success at home (16/63/1, 16/101, 14/81, and 15/111 – 5.8 yards per carry but one TD).

DraftKings set his over/under at 70.5 rushing yards (114o). He is -120 to score an anytime touchdown.

The Raiders have played well against the run (sixth in yards allowed – 632), with running backs gaining 3.9 yards per carry. They’ve given up three rushing and three receiving touchdowns. Only two running backs rushed for over 70 yards. Jonathan Taylor gained 86 combined yards with three touchdowns and three catches.

Jeremy McNichols (4/78/1)

Travis Etienne (22/84)

I expect Dobbins to end his scoring drought in this game. RJ Harvey has been the running back scoring beast for Denver over the past three games. He has scored a touchdown in three consecutive matchups (five total) despite only touching the ball 20 times (11/51/2 with seven catches for 68 yards and three touchdowns). Harvey is +205 to score an anytime touchdown.

Denver Broncos Stats — Broncos Projections for Week 10 | Shawn Childs

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Nix has yet to find his late 2024 rookie stride, where he delivered 21 passing touchdowns over his final eight starts while averaging 253 passing yards. He has a touchdown via a pass in all nine of his games, but failed to pass for over 210 yards in five matchups (176/1, 206/3, 153/1, 174/1, and 173/2). On the positive side, Nix has been much better over his last three home games.

CIN (333 combined yards and three touchdowns)

Vs. NYG (327 combined yards and four touchdowns)

Vs. DAL (247/4)

DraftKings set his over/under at 215.5 passing yards (-114o), which seems favorable for the prop market looking for him to hit on the over side. In between, writing about Geno Smith and Bo Nix, DraftKings pulled down the passing touchdown over/under lines for both players. He is +290 to score anytime a touchdown (run/pass). All three of Nix’s rushing scores this year have come at home.

The earlier graph under Geno Smith showed that the Raiders ranked 14th in passing yards allowed (1,897 – 237 per game). Last year, Nix passed for 206 yards with two scores at home against Las Vegas (273/2 on the road).

Drake Maye (287/1)

Justin Herbert (242/2)

Cam Ward (222/1)

Patrick Mahomes (286/3)

Trevor Lawrence (220/0)

The Raiders allowed between 207 and 212 passing yards in their other three matchups. Nix should play well in this game, and his receiving expectations (253 yards) paint a better picture than my passing-yard projections (224 yards).

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders

Brock Bowers, Fantasy Football — Sep 21, 2025; Landover, Maryland, USA; Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers (89) and Washington Commanders middle linebacker Bobby Wagner (54) collide during the second half at Northwest Stadium. | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

The prop betting market has taken the under position (-114u) on Brock Bowers' over/under in receiving yards (68.5). He is +175 to score an anytime touchdown.

With Jakobi Meyers shipped out of town, Bowers is the lockdown top receiving option for the Raiders. On the downside of this year, Las Vegas plays on Thursday night, inviting possibly fewer snaps for their star tight end.

Denver has given up big plays to tight ends (13.0 yards per catch), but they do have plenty of talent on defense, even with the loss of their top CB, Patrick Surtain, to a pectoral issue. The Broncos rank 12th in tight end defense (103.20 fantasy points). They allowed eight catches for 97 yards and one touchdown at home to Brock Bowers in 2024 (4/38 in Las Vegas).

Tyler Warren (4/79)

Oronde Gadsden (5/46)

Dallas Goedert (3/19/1)

Giants tight ends (6/154/2)

Jake Ferguson (0/0)

Dalton Schultz (6/77)

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

Courtland Sutton, Fantasy Football — Oct 26, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) reacts in the fourth quarter against the Dallas Cowboys at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Over his last four starts (1/17, 6/87, 4/67, and 1/30/1), Sutton has failed to produce as expected while receiving 25 combined targets. He played well in three games (6/61/1, 6/118/1, and 5/81/1), with two other games with over 85 receiving yards (8/99 and 6/87).

DraftKings set his over/under at 55.5 receiving yards (-113o), which is a level he has beaten 67% of the time this season. Sutton came up short at home (2/32) against the Raiders, followed by a great showing in Las Vegas (8/97/2). He is +150 to score an anytime touchdown.

The Raiders have allowed the 27th most receiving yards (1,321) to wide receivers, highlighted by a high catch rate (67.5). Las Vegas wants to keep wideouts in front of the them (11.8 yards per catch). Eight wide receivers have gained over 55 yards.

Kayshon Boutte (6/103)

Keenan Allen (5/61/1)

Quentin Johnston (3/71/1)

Luke McCaffrey (3/56/1)

Terry McLaurin (3/74)

Rome Odunze (4/69/1)

Van Jefferson (4/75)

Parker Washington (8/90)

Sutton should play well in this game, and I expect the Broncos to hit a long touchdown pass to one of their wideouts.