How NFL Future Markets Can Help Predict 2026 Fantasy Football Breakouts and Busts

Using betting data, these are breakout and bust candidates in 2026 fantasy football.

Aug 22, 2026; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) during the game against the New Orleans Saints at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Betting markets offer a unique way to prepare for fantasy football. What those markets do is open up as a line set by an oddsmaker. Then, the betting line shifts based on where the money is flowing. Over a large accumulation of opinions, we gain clarity about the true expectation of an outcome. In fantasy football terms, we can find where a player may rise above ADP based on their betting lines for 2026.

Brock Purdy: Over/Under 3700.5 Passing Yards

Purdy has the 7th-most yards projected for any NFL quarterback in 2026. Yet, Purdy is going as the QB12 in the current ADP. As Matthew Berry's notes in his "100 Facts" column, no NFL quarterback has more passing + rushing yards per game than Purdy since 2024.

Breece Hall: Over/Under 900.5 Rushing Yards

Hall is 10th among running backs in his season-long rushing yards prop. More importantly, Hall has the 6th-most running back receiving yards since 2024. That makes him a top-10 running back, right? I would think so, but ADP has Hall as the RB17. Interesting...

Trey McBride: Over/Under 950.5 Recieving Yards

The market may expect a decline for McBride. Over his last two seasons, McBride is averaging 1,192 yards per full year. McBride may definitely be seeing a decline in those forced targets he's been getting, sparking the debate over whether Brock Bowers might be the real TE1? My dark horses include Tyler Warren and Dalton Kincaid.

Matthew Stafford: Over/Under 29.5 Passing Touchdowns

One year ago, Stafford was a top-5 quarterback in fantasy football. That came on the heels of 46 passing touchdowns. I agree that his touchdown count will take a massive drop in 2026, and the betting lines agree, implying about a 40% decrease. My projection has Stafford passing for 34 scores.

Jahmyr Gibbs: +650 (Favorite) to Win Offensive Player of the Year

Gibbs is going as the top player in fantasy football, ahead of Bijan Robinson by a thin margin. The betting lines confirm that fact, listing Gibbs $2.50 more likely to win this award over Robinson. He is $3.50 more likely than Ja'Marr Chase and $6.50 more likely than Puka Nacua.

Derrick Henry: +2000 to Win Offensive Player of the Year AND Over/Under 12.5 Rushing Touchdowns

Despite his age, Henry has very high expectations, which feature him as the most likely to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns. His over/under expects one more score than Jonathan Taylor and 3 more than anyone else. Added, Henry is more likely to win OPOY than the likes of Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, James Cook, Saquon Barkley, and Kenneth Walker III.

De'Zhaun Stribling: +650 to Win Offensive Rookie of the Year

Vegas Betting Lines can be used to forecast fantasy football breakout candidates.

📈De'Zhaun Stribling

+1200 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year

Favorited above Makai Lemon, Ja'Kobi Lane, KC Concepcion, and Denzel Boston

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— Tom Carelli | Fantasy Football (@TCarelliTakes) August 22, 2026

When I last checked this betting market four days ago, Stribling was +1200. He has now risen all the way to +650, which I honestly would not deem of value. Nonetheless, the market is confident in Stribling as he is T-4th in favoritism for the award behind Carnell Tate, Fernando Mendoza, and Jeremiyah Love.

I do love me some Stribling as Mike Evans continues to have hamstring and groin issues. Although an Evans absence may not directly translate to a huge Stribling workload, it will favor a target boost.

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