Must-Avoid Wide Receivers by Round in a Fantasy Football Draft: Alec Pierce, 9 Others

At their average draft position, these wide receivers are not worth the cost in a fantasy football draft.

Dec 22, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce (14) leaves the field after losing a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christine Tannous-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

In the high-variance game of fantasy football, we must approach cautiously. Most players will not finish anywhere near their preseason ADP. It is up to us to measure that risk-versus-reward scenario and bank on weighing the risk-reward upside above all else. On the flip side, there is also a downside. Today, instead of focusing on our breakout candidates, we focus on those who could flop and must be avoided. These are the wide receivers to fade in each round of a fantasy football draft.

Round 1: Jaxon Smith-Njigba

When weighing the risk of fantasy football's top-5 wide receivers, Smith-Njigba carries the most risk. He enters 2026 with a new offensive coordinator who comes from a different coaching tree than the one Klint Kubiak had. Smith-Njigba is also being asked to return to his monstrous 36% target share in 2025.

It is rare that any wide receiver finds a 35% higher target share in a season. It is much more reasonable to expect Smith-Njigba to approach a 30-34% target share, which would result in a minor downgrade from his WR2 result the season prior.

Round 2: Drake London

This is certainly not a bad pick, just one of higher risk than others. Our projections bring London to WR12 status and make it a very much a 3rd-4th round pick in fantasy football. London enters 2026 with Tommy Rees calling plays, who stems from this same Kevin Stefanski coaching tree. The scheme is run-first.

London will also take the field with Tua Tagovailoa as his likely starting quarterback. Yes, Tua has supported elite seasons from Tyreek Hill, but he is still a borderline bottom-10 quarterback in the NFL. On a mediocre offense, London probably lacks top-5 wide receiver upside compared to George Pickens or Nico Collins.

Round 3: Malik Nabers

People love to draw hype in the world of social media. This has fans believing not only that Nabers plays Week 1, but that he does it in great health. That is simply bad foresight.

While it is possible that Nabers plays Week 1, he will take multiple weeks to reach near 100% health. It could take until late October. This knocks Nabers out of a ranking where he would probably be the WR4-7 in fantasy football, if healthy.

Nabers projects far down the list as our WR26, assuming 2.0 games missed. Even if he misses none, Nabers would project in the mid-to-late teens of wide receivers, on par with DJ Moore and Terry McLaurin, when factoring in reduced health for a time.

Round 4: Ladd McConkey

I’m prepared to begin a hot take which will say that Tre Harris is the best wide receiver on the chargers.

(Will now proceed to get reamed out by fans) https://t.co/evGMzWFc9I

— Tom Carelli | Fantasy Football (@TCarelliTakes) August 11, 2026

I am making a stand in 2026. My boldest prediction of all? Tre Harris is the Chargers' best wide receiver in terms of talent. While he still is unlikely to ever be the team'sis still WR1, Harris may easily steal target share from McConkey. He will not be this year's Smith-Njigba. Rather, McConkey projects to have a target share in the 25-28% range.

Good, it is. Our projections are much lower on McConkey as the WR29 in fantasy football. He falls victim to being a less dominant red zone target, as opposed to better high-point catchers like Quentin Johnston, Harris, Oronde Gadsden II, and David Njoku.

Round 5: Jameson Williams

Williams is not an ideal fit in this Drew Petzing offense. The scheme will heavily favor the X-receiver, who will often be Amon-Ra St. Brown. We saw this clearly with Michael Wilson in 2025. A player who relies on one or two big plays like a prime DeSean Jackson, Williams has reduced risk given his less reliable output. We have him 12 spots off of his WR24 ADP, via our projections.

Round 6: Mike Evans

Mike Evans has now missed 5 straight practices due to his quad injury.

He has not practiced in 9 days. pic.twitter.com/hdvDlnSrcz

— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) August 10, 2026

Do not trust the health of the 34-year-old Mike Evans. That hamstring has ailed Evans for two years now, missing a total of 8 games in that span. He has missed a total of 12 games over the past five seasons due to his unreliability. Evans even looks slow in the latest training camp videos.

Round 7: Alec Pierce

Alec Pierce #colts

Still not practicing. I’ve expressed my concerns numerous times. I’m fully out on Pierce this year

Malik Nabers #giants

Hearing all great things. Has the combo of talent + age to be a rare successful WR in Y1 ACLr but I’d still tread cautiously for now 👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/utJxb69G5H

— Tom Christ, PT, DPT, OCS, FAAOMPT (@FantasyInjuryT) August 4, 2026

There is drastic concern surrounding significant Pierce's ankle rehab. He has yet to take the field at the Colts' training camp. All sharp medical opinions suggest that Pierce's 2026 will be ineffective, favoring an upgrade in value for Josh Downs and Ashton Dulin. Expect Tyler Warren to be a big-time feature in this 2026 offense; a tight-end value, even as TE3 overall.

Round 8: Michael Wilson

As earlier stated with Jameson Williams, Wilson's big breakout in 2025 was largely thanks to the schematics of Drew Petzing's offense. It was also due to the injury-plagued season of Marvin Harrison Jr. Fast forward to 2026 — Mike LaFleur runs this offense in a Kyle Shanahan fashion. It will not favor the X-receiver, as Wilson has suggested. I'm nervous that the pre-2025 Wilson is back and of less value on a bottom-6 rated offense.

You can easily pivot to much lower-risk, high-upside options around this ADP: Jordyn Tyson and Parker Washington.

Round 9: Makai Lemon

Lemon is not getting any praise thus far at Eagles camp. On the contrary, Dontavyion Wicks is getting all the praise. Will Lemon flop as a rookie? Time will tell, but he is also dealing with injuries, and he plays with a quarterback who played so poorly in passing that AJ Brown forced his way out of town...

Round 10: Jordan Addison

The options going around this range are actually quite good. Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs are both options at this ADP range. They are both options that could definitely become their teams' WR1. As for Addison, he is not that.

While the floor is relatively high on Addison, the ceiling may be limited. With the addition of Jauan Jennings, Addison's upside is more limited to years passed in terms of target share. Also, given TJ Hockenson's health, Addison could dip below a 20% target share.

Our projections bring Addison to a 19% target share and just 4.0 touchdowns with a below-average red zone target share compared to the overall target share. He is our WR55 and well below consensus.