Patrick Mahomes 2025 Fantasy Football Outlook: Bounce-Back Or New Normal?

Patrick Mahomes' fantasy value dipped in 2023 and 2024, but with improved weapons in 2025, can he return to elite QB1 status for fantasy football managers?

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) against the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LIX at Ceasars Superdome. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

After a dip in production over the last two seasons, Patrick Mahomes enters 2025 with questions about his ceiling—but also the potential to reclaim his fantasy throne. With an improved supporting cast and the Chiefs still leaning on the pass, Mahomes could deliver a top-5 QB campaign at a mid-round value.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

His high floor continued in 2022, resulting in almost identical values for completions (435) and pass attempts (648). Mahomes set career-highs in passing yards (5,250) and passing touchdowns (41), along with help in the run game (61/358/4). He gained 20 yards or more on 73 pass plays, with 13 of those passes hitting the 40-yard mark. 

Over his first 10 starts, Mahomes scored more than 30.00 fantasy points in six starts (38.50, 33.40, 32.15, 39.60, 35.45, and 30.75) but only once (36.10) over his final 10 matchups. He had three touchdowns or more in 11 of his 20 contests (including the postseason).

In 2023, the Chiefs’ offense experienced a step back in success, resulting in Mahomes achieving a career-low 7.0 yards per pass attempt, with only 27 touchdowns (averaging 41 scores over his previous three years). His completion percentage (67.2%) was a new high, and he ran more (75/389/0). 

Mahomes passed for over 300 yards in three (305/2, 396/1, and 424/4) of his first seven starts but only two more times (Week 15 – 305/2 and Super Bowl – 333/2) over his final 13 games. Over a 12-game stretch, starting in Week 8, he averaged only 19.47 fantasy points in four-point passing touchdown leagues, a signal of weaker receiving weapons for Kansas City.

For the second consecutive year, Mahomes set a new bottom in his yards per pass attempt (6.8) but reached a high ceiling in his completion rate (67.5). Only four of his completions gained 40 yards or more compared to 66 over his previous 95 starts. He passed for 300 yards in only three matchups (331/0, 306/1, and 320/3).

Despite his shortfalls, Mahomes posted his best regular-season record (15-1) of his career. His season opened with six passing touchdowns and eight interceptions over his first six games, which screamed multiple losses for other quarterbacks. 

He cleaned up his game over his final 10 contests, leading to 23.16 fantasy points per game in four-point passing touchdown formats (about the sixth-best quarterback). Over this span, he averaged 272 combined yards with 21 touchdowns and three interceptions. Mahomes scored over 30.00 fantasy points in two matchups (Week 12 – 31.45 and Week 20 – 33.55). 

Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Football Outlook

The loss of Rashee Rice, paired with Travis Kelce turning into a chain mover, was a factor in Mahomes' decrease in fantasy value. In addition, Xavier Worthy took multiple weeks to find his NFL sea legs. The fantasy market this Summer ranks the Chiefs’ starting quarterback seventh, with a much more favorable price point. 

Kansas City should have a better wide receiver rotation in 2025, but their run game still needs a winning playmaker, and it would be hard to believe that Travis Kelce will have a rebound in value. Mahomes knows how to win, and he makes the players around him better. The Chiefs want to pass the ball, suggesting a push back to 4,500 combined yards, accompanied by a move over 35 touchdowns or a top-5 quarterback season.