Sam Darnold Super Bowl LX Player Props & Stat Projections vs. Patriots

With Super Bowl 60 set to feature a long-awaited Seahawks–Patriots rematch, we break down Sam Darnold’s passing outlook, prop bets, and matchup trends against New England’s defense.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) passes against the Los Angeles Rams during the first half in the 2026 NFC Championship Game at Lumen Field. | Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

On February 8, 2026, the 60th Super Bowl will kick off, pairing the upstart New England Patriots against the Seattle Seahawks. The fans from the great Northwest will be looking for redemption after seeing victory snatched from them at the one-year line with 26 seconds left in their earlier matchup in the Super Bowl. Malcolm Butler made the most outstanding defensive play in the history of the NFL by intercepting Russell Wilson's pass to Ricardo Lockette on second down, with Marshawn Lynch (24/102/1) saying, “Give me the ball, coach.”

Sam Darnold 2025 Regular Season Breakdown

Sam Darnold comes off his second-best season in the NFL. He passed for 4,048 yards with 25 touchdowns while completing a career high 67.7% of his passes. Darnold gained an impressive 8.5 yards per pass attempt, highlighted by 57 completions of 20 yards or more, with 12 of those plays reaching the 40-yard mark. 

His high level of success was driven by a masterful season from Jaxon Smith-Nijigba (119/1,793/10 on 162 targets – 15.1 yards per catch). He also caught 19 passes in the playoffs for 256 yards and two touchdowns on 24 targets, highlighted by his success vs. the Rams (10/153/1).

Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Los Angeles Rams during the first half in the 2026 NFC Championship Game at Lumen Field. | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

On the downside for Darnold, he threw 14 interceptions this year, but he was sacked only 27 times. In his breakthrough season with the Vikings in 2024, Darnold landed on his back 48 times in the regular season while being exposed in the postseason (nine sacks) by the Rams. 

The Seahawks ranked sixth in rushing yards (2,002) by their running backs, with a league high 463 rushing attempts and 19 touchdowns. They caught 53 passes for 441 yards on 63 targets despite gaining an 8.3 yards per catch. Pairing their run game with a top defense, Darnold attempted only 477 passes (28.1 per game).

Super Bowl LX Quarterback Projections

Here's my initial quarterback projections for the Super Bowl:

Shawn Childs

Sam Darnold 2025 Stats Breakdown

In three games this year, the Seahawks’ defense gave Seattle a big lead, resulting in Darnold having low passing attempts (18, 12, and 17).

• Vs. NO – 14-for-18 with 218 passing yards and two touchdowns
• Vs. ARI – 10-for-12 with 178 passing yards and one touchdown
• Vs. SF – 12-for-17 with 124 passing yards and one touchdown

He passed for over 300 yards in three matchups.

• Vs TB – 28-for-34 with 341 passing yards, four touchdowns, and one interception
• @WAS – 21-for-24 with 330 passing yards and four touchdowns
• Vs LAR (playoffs) – 25-for-35 with 346 passing yards and three touchdowns

Sam Darnold in the most important game of his career, per @FantasyPtsData:

+ 346 passing yards (season-high)
+ 9.61 yards per attempt (best since W10)
+ 9.77 ANY/A (best since Wk12)
+ 83.3% catchable throw rate (best since Wk10)
+ 110 deep passing yards (best since Wk6)

— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) January 26, 2026

Darnold had nine games with two passing touchdowns or more (19 starts). Nine of his 14 interceptions came on the road (2,279/16 – 68.4% completion rate). He ran the ball 38 times for 104 yards (2.7 yards per carry).

His worst game (loss) came against the Rams on the road (29-for-44 with 279 passing yards, no touchdowns, and four interceptions). Darnold’s other two losses came against Tampa Bay (35-31) and at San Francisco in Week 18 (17-13). 

Seattle scored over 30 points in eight games. They scored fewer than 20 points only in two of their losses.

Sam Darnold Super Bowl LX Player Props

Here’s a look at Darnold’s props for the Super Bowl:

• 227.5 passing yards (-113o)
• 1.5 passing touchdowns (-121o)
• 30.5 pass attempts (-115u)
• 20.5 completions (-119u)
• 0.5 interceptions (-143o)
• 6.5 rushing yards (-120u)
• 2.5 rushing attempts (-135u)
• A rushing touchdown (+1,000)

Seahawks v. Patriots Super Bowl MVP odds:

+130 Sam Darnold
+235 Drake Maye
+550 Jaxon Smith-Njigba
+600 Kenneth Walker
+2500 Rhamondre Stevenson
+2800 Rashid Shaheed

Who do you think will win it? 👀 pic.twitter.com/MFgygeU1jM

— Seattle ON Tap (@SeattleONTap) January 26, 2026

Extrapolating Darnold's Stats For A Big Pay Day

Darnold passed for fewer than 228 yards in eight games of his 19 starts. He had more than 30 pass attempts in seven games while delivering at least 21 completions in seven matchups. 

Quarterbacks average 20.2 completions, 30.2 pass attempts, 206 passing yards, and 1.4 passing touchdowns against the Patriots during the regular season. Five quarterbacks passed for over 227 yards, none over the last 10 games. Their worst pass coverage came over the first two games (Geno Smith – 362/1 and Tua Tagovailoa – 315/2), when their top cornerback, Christian Gonzalez, was injured.

For a deeper comparison, here is a look at the strength of each team's opponent, not by games played, but by the value of all their matchups (17 games with 17 outcomes for each contest, with data behind them). In the case of the Seahawks, all division opponents' stats count twice.

• Seattle’s defensive matchups allowed 6,157 completions, 9,530 passing attempts, 67,495 passing yards, 447 touchdowns, 656 sacks, and 213 interceptions. These stats, divided by 289 (17 games for all of their 17 opponents), came to 21-for-33 with 234 passing yards, 1.5 passing touchdowns, 2.2 sacks, and 0.7 interceptions per game.
• As for New England’s offensive opponents, they had 5,736 completions, 8,926 pass attempts, 59,251 passing yards, 377 passing touchdowns, 745 sacks, and 219 interceptions – 20-for-31 with 205 passing yards, 1.3 passing touchdowns, 2.6 sacks, and 0.8 interceptions per game.

Based on this, the Seahawks’ defense matchups and the Patriots’ offensive matchups differed by 29 passing yards and 0.2 passing touchdowns in Seattle's favor. I’m curious to see the reverse stats while researching Drake Maye.

The Seahawks' wide receiver had 201 catches for 2,893 yards and 18 touchdowns on 290 targets. New England’s defense allowed 161 catches for 1,982 yards and 16 touchdowns on 255 targets to wideouts.

Seattle’s tight ends caught 71 passes for 729 yards and seven touchdowns on 102 targets. The Patriots’ defense allowed 95 catches for 965 yards and five touchdowns to tight ends.

Sam Darnold Super Bowl LX Projections

At the end of the day, I'm projecting Darnold to complete 21 of 30 pass attempts for 244 yards and two touchdowns while protecting the football and throwing zero interceptions. While I don't expect him to use his legs (two rushes for five yards and a 0% chance at scoring a rushing touchdown), Darnold should have a solid game in his Super Bowl debut.